Friday closed the day/week on the highs. The week has some weak starts on the day and each day managed to shake it off and lift. The range wasn’t huge, but still left the market sitting at new highs on the week for the year across the broader markets. Friday’s volume came in lower than Thursday’s and left the day a little lackluster. The TRIN closed at 1.23 on Friday and had a weeks average of 1.16. Gold closed the day up $10.40 to $1153.30 and oil up $1.42 to $85.12 a barrel.
On the weekly charts the Nas Composite closed at 2530.15 just over 2519.97 78.6% resistance. Another week over that key fib resistance would open the door to the 2861.51 October 2007 highs. The Nas 100 spent another week over 1982.68 78.6% confirming the prior weeks break. 2205.18 is the October 2007 on the Nas 100 for the next big level, but before we get to that level we have the May/June 2008 highs here at 2055.82. The market spent 5 weeks at that level and ended up falling. The RSI on the Nas Composite and Nas 100 closed the week at 76, the CCI is flat at 117ish, MACD is pointed up and stochastics are flat at 96. Both indexes are into the upper BB on the weekly and over extended.
The weekly on the SPX has an RSI at 72, stochastics at 94, MACD open to the upside, CCI flat at 114 with divergence on the week and into the upper Bollinger band. The SPX is into 1226.74 61.8% fib off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows. While the Nasdaq indexes are well ahead of the SPX this is still a key level. The Dow is also lagging back and sits at 11246 61.8%. The Dow had divergence on the CCI for the week, RSI is at 72 and stochastics are at 95. These two indexes are also extended on the weekly chart with the Nasdaq.
Being extended isn’t necessarily a sign of the top, it is just a sign the market is rising with some struggle. The intraday pullbacks kept working the shorter term intraday overbought conditions off. Which helps the market to keep lifting in small steps and will keep volatility low which is just off the 15.23 lows from 4/12/10. With a Fed meeting this week and a lot of other economic data due we should see similar action to what we had last week. Earnings will continue to roll out and be watched closely for forward guidance.
Futures closed Friday well over the upcoming weeks weekly pivots. A flat opening would be ideal on Monday but with the Greece news still hanging out there Sunday’s globex session could change our view into Monday. As we sit now I will look for a pullback Monday and for the session to quiet down into Wednesday’s Fed announcement. A test of the weekly pivots Monday would allow for a nice pullback and setup for another leg up. It is the final week for April and that should help volume to come in and stay steady throughout the week. Watch the 61.8% levels close on the SPX and Dow and the NDX needs to stay over 78.6% for this advance to continue.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover) Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BLK, CAT, HUM, SOHU, TZOO, and after the bell ALB, AMP, BSX, ELX, RSH, TXN, VECO, WMS. Tuesday pre market MMM, BP, CIT, CMI, DD, F, LXK, MHP, NEM, ODP, OXPS, TLAB, TYC, X, UAUA, UA, UPS, LCC, VLO, and after the bell BRCM, DWA, NSC, PNRA, ULTI. Wednesday pre markets APU, BCRX, GLW, DOW, GD, HES, IACI, JBLU, MSO, MHS, PFCB, SAP, SO, S, WLP, and after the bell BIDU, CRA, FSLR, GG, LSI, OII, RYL, SUNH, TSRA, VAR, V, XLNX. Thursday pre market AEP, BJS, BG, CAH, CELG, CME, COP, XOM, HP, HURN, IMAX, IP, K, MOT, MYL, GAS, NS, OMX, ZEUS, PTEN, POT, PG, HOT, TSM, WM, and after the bell AEM, HIG, KLAC, MXIM, MET, PDLI, QLGC, SUN, TSO. Friday pre market AGN, CVX, DHI, LPNT, NDAQ, VFC and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +8.61 at 1217.28. Support: 1204.44, 1190.87, 1154.79 50dma- 1151.28. Resistance: 1228.74 61.8%, 1265.12, 1309.67.
