Thursday closed the week out with a gain across the broader markets. Volume was lighter on the NYSE and Nasdaq leaving the market pretty quiet. Wednesday’s distribution day didn’t get follow through but the bulls didn’t get an accumulation day to run the market on either. The TRIN closed very bullish at .47 the only day of last week to close under 1.00. That tells us that the selling pressure was absent and there wasn’t any profit taking either. The VIX closed at 17.47 on the 10dma and has the 20dema working down to the 10dma now. Gold closed up $13.20 to $1126.50 and oil up $1.06 to $84.82 a barrel.
Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite held the swing lows from March 26th while the S&P 500 held over the gap fill from March31st (1169.43) and the Dow fell into 3/31 gap and held to bounce. The Dow came close to the March 25th highs and was unable to break out. The S&P 500 did break over the 1180.69 3/25 highs, but snapped back under quickly and we may see a double top, a break of 1161.48 would confirm that. The Nasdaq 100 and Nasdaq Composite closed the day with divergence and the week did too although it booked a small gain. The week was an inside week on the Nasdaq indexes. The SPX and Dow traded modestly higher on the week and just outside the prior weeks range still in a very narrow range on the week.
Although the bulls are holding well and very resilient to even bad news that we shrugged off mid week they are tiring and holding a small range. That is digestive and keeps the market winding for a move to come. Historically the S&P 500 traded lower after Easter 16 of 20 until 2004 and then the trend changed to 5 of the last 6 to the upside. We usually stumble out of the gate after three day weekends for a slow start. 11,000 will be key resistance on the Dow to clear, SPX 1228.74, Nas Composite 2473.20 and onto 2519.97, Nas 100 1982.68 and the Russell 2000 706.07. A pullback to even the March lows would be very shallow because March just crawled up with tiny ranges leaving a lot of green days but narrow ranges.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales. Tuesday 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 10:00 Wholesale Inventories
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing due out. Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday pre market FDO, MON and after the bell BBBY, LWSN, PBY, SCHN, WDFC. Thursday pre market ISCA, PIR and after the bell SMSC, NCTY. Friday pre market BTH, STZ and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +8.67 at 1178.10. Support: 1170.52, 1163.79-1158.99, 1144.98. Resistance: 1179.27, 1195.91, 1228.74.
