Friday closed the day with a narrow range inside day in the red across the broader markets. The Dow closed off .16%, SPX -.40%, NDX -.72%, COMPX -.76% for a modest day on the broader markets. The volume fell off with the narrow range to hold the market very quiet. The week took back the last three weeks of gains. Pretty tight range for the last months so this isn’t really saying a lot. The TRIN closed 1.18 slightly bearish and the TRIN at 26.24 about 12.5% off the 10dma. Gold closed the day down 70 cents to $1216.00 an ounce and oil down 34 cents to $75.40 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite has 2155.29 61.8%, 1809.41 50%, SPX 1069.11 50% and Dow 10266.14 50dma and 10167.10 50% fib support just under each index. The Dow is still the only index sitting over a key moving average 50dma. The CCI closed with divergence on the daily charts for the COMPX, SPX, NDX and Dow and the ADX is also very low down at 15. That low ADX tells us an impending move is coming and with the VIX more than 10% off the 10dma. I am looking for some quick movement to come into the market. The week has a lot of data, but also options expiration. Which usually brings in volatility and plenty of movement throughout the week.
Monday we’ll look for a test of lower ground and for the market to find some upside. The ES still has a gap at 1064 from 7/21 to fill. Last week left 8/11 gap, 8/10 and 8/9 gaps open overhead. That leaves the market with some work overhead to clear up, but keep in mind the that can stay open for weeks/months. Breaking Friday’s range should help to bring in volume and get the market moving early on.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 10:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:30 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks. Friday nothing due.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market LOW, SYY and after the bell A, URBN. Tuesday pre market ANF, HD, SKS, TJX, WMT and after the bell ADI, LZB. Wednesday pre market BJ, COCO, DE, STP, TGT and after the bell AMAT, BRCD, HOTT, LTD, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, DKS, DLTR, GME, HNZ, ROST, SHLD, SPLS, WSM, and DELL, GPS, HPQ, INTU, MRVL, NDSN, CRM, WTSLA. Friday pre market ANN, SJM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
