Friday closed the day split with modest wins and losses on the day. The NDX and Nas Composite closed up and the SPX, RUT and Dow closed down. The week closed the same way with the split in the indexes. Volume was also split on the day with the NYSE higher and the Nasdaq slightly lower. It was a pretty lackluster day for options expiration and the last one of the summer. The TRIN closed at 1.69 bearish and the VIX 25.49 on the days lows still over the 23.36 200dma and 24.88 10dma. Gold closed down $5.40 to $1230 and oil down 98 cents to $73.45 an ounce.
The narrow range week and day was not normal for expiration week, but fairly normal for August. August just sets a try to get through the month and do so without a lot of damage on either side of the fence in the light volume. The upcoming week is full of economic data and very little to worry about for earnings. The SPX and the Dow hung onto 50% fib support off the July 1 lows to July 27th highs swing. The Nas Composite and Nas 100 continue to hold just over 61.8% fib support. The week’s low is basically where we need to see the market hold over on each index to continue holding this support.
The ES has 1075.75, NQ 1829.5 and TF 612.5 38.2% resistance to clear to see any move higher. TF 604.10, NQ 1817.25, and ES 1065.50 support to look for. If we drop there we can look for last weeks lows to test (ES 1061.75, NQ 1800 and TF 599.90). Futures did test the weekly pivots and the daily everyday excluding Friday on the ES and TF, the NQ did test Friday. First thing we need to see is the range from Friday break to point the market in a direction to find volatility. Don’t get excited if there is a lot of sitting and waiting this week, we could see August sit and not really do a lot for us. There will be opportunities, they will just be hit and miss throughout the week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Tuesday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:00 HPI m/m, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Mortgage Delinquencies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Prelim GDP Price Index, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market SAFM, TUES and after the bell FMCN. Tuesday pre market BKS, BIG, MDT, and after the bell PSUN, RUE, PAY. Wednesday pre market AEO, ISLE, TOL and after the bell JDSU, SMTC, TIVO. Thursday pre market DHT, FRED, PDCO and after the bell DLLR, JCG, NOVL, OVTI. Friday pre market FRO, TIF and nothing after the bell.
