Friday closed the week mixed with the Nasdaq green and the S&P 500 along with the Dow red. Volume was pretty unchanged on the NYSE and higher on the Nasdaq over Thursday’s action. The week closely marginally higher and a very narrow week. Friday’s range was another day in the range we sat in all week. Good way to close out August in range and holding the months gains, which isn’t likely to change on Monday (the last day of August). The TRIN closed at .63 bullish and the VIX at 24.66. Gold closed up $12.20 at $959.50 and oil up 24 cents at $72.73 a barrel.
The Dow traded over 9422 38.2% (off October 2007 highs to March 2009 lows) and back in the November 2008 range. The Nas Composite is into 2063.52 50% retracement on the Oct-March move for resistance. Nas 100 is into September 2008 highs and the 50% retracement as well. S&P 500 moved through 1014.14 38.2% and into the October 2008 range. On the daily charts the indexes still sit into the upper Bollinger and in a five day range, but also Friday put in new highs for the month, which we closed just off that level on each index. The bull didn’t let the bears get hold for long, several tries and nothing followed through.
Monday I expect a slow opening with data at 9:45, after that we should move. Unless the data is disappointing, the market is likely to find a break out. We cleared those 38.2% and 50%, that still gives the bulls the upside fuel. Bad data would help a pullback in an orderly move. The week ahead leads into Labor day, I do expect volume to be alright, but direction could stay shaky this week as September gets underway. There is still a lot of top picking out there and when everyone is waiting on a pullback and expecting one. That is exactly when the market does not deliver one. The tone did back off the extreme bullishness last week, we sold on good data and we didn’t see the big end of day buying sprees. That is hawkish for the pullback to come in, but I still can’t do much other than wait and see. Very neutral tone and nothing to alter that until we see something that clears last weeks range with conviction.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 9:45 Chicago PMI, Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle Sales all day, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market JAVA and after the bell SINA. Tuesday pre market GIGM, TUTR and after the bell ADCT, SEAC, TTWO, PAY. Wednesday pre market JOYG, ZLC and after the bell PSS, HOV,MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, FLOW, MOV, SCMR and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA, WIND. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday’s pivot 1029.50, weekly pivot 1027, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1019.75, 1014.50 38.2%, 1011.75, 1007.25, 1004.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1033.75, 1038.75, 1043.75-1044.50, 1049, 1052.25-1053.25
