Friday close left the broader markets with three up weeks and the month with big gains for the fifth consecutive month. Bulls have let very few pullbacks come into play and last weeks range was significantly smaller than the prior two weeks. The TRIN fell late day to close at .72 and the VIX at 25.92, the highest close on the week. Futures volume was higher on Friday than Thursday but the NYSE and Nasdaq both fell off. Gold rallied $20.60 to $955.50 and oil up $2.40 for $69.34 a barrel.
Next week earnings start to drop off, about 70% of the S&P 500 has reported, which leaves us with fewer big market movers to come. They’ll be hit and miss for us now, but plenty still to look for in the next two weeks, just more second tier companies. Economic data picks up this week and we kick off August. Friday did leave some very narrow range bars trying to come off the highs off Thursday’s reversal candle. The shooting star on Thursday did confirm on the Nasdaq, but the SPX and Dow, which were both inside days. Leaving Monday to move us out and likely to pull us in. Last week continued to climb even when the market had ample opportunity to drop. The bulls are resilient and the small drops we saw intraday helped to work the overbought conditions off. Daily COMPX, NDX, SPX, Dow all have the stochastics crossed down and sitting in the 80’s, RSI low 70’s and coming off the highs, MACD is actually touching so the lines did close up some and CCI all into 100 line. None of the daily, weekly or monthly charts are on the upper Bollinger and all still have room to move. Which means until we see this pullback that is trying to wind in here for us, we won’t be just assuming up is finished. That is a good way to get into a lot of trouble.
Look for the gap from the 29th to fill and act as support. That is a big drop, so I’d like to see a move into the lows from last week to see if dip buyers step in fast. OR let us pullback. That would give us more confidence in a pullback into lower levels. 60 minute on futures and 65 on the indexes we have the 10ma and 20ema tightening up, keep an eye on that 10 coming through the 20 to guide a drop with some depth to it.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle sales all day, Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks, 10:00 Pending Home Sales. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Friday pre market AEP, D, TOT, WY and nothing after the bell. Monday pre market CLX, MRO, MGM, TSN and after the bell CTX, MSTR, PHM. Tuesday pre market ADM, CVS, DRH, ICE, THC, UPL, and after the bell CEPH, ERTS, HLS, TSRA, TRLG, WFMI. Wednesday pre market ABK, AGU, BHI, DF, DVN, EE, GRMN, MMC, OSG, PG, SEP, RIG, XTO and after the bell NDN, BBBB, CECO, CRA, CSCO, GDP, INSP, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, SUNH, SUN, TIE, WGL. Thursday pre market AES, EAT, CMCSA, CTB, DSX, EP, FTO, KG, MMS, PCS, NDAQ, OMG, WEN, WMB, and after the bell ACS, AIG, BZH, NILE, CBS, CHINA, CROX, ELX, HANS, MXIM, MCHP, NGS, NVDA, THS, VRSN, WTW. Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell.
