Friday closed the day split with the Nas 100 and Nas Composite slightly down while the S&P 500 and the Dow closed modestly higher. Volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq closed lower to end the week quietly, futures still rolling over did close with higher volume. The TRIN closed at .82 bullish on the day and the VIX down for the fourth straight day at 21.59. Gold closed the day off -6.30 to $1119.90 and oil off 78 cents to $69.76 a barrel.
The day closed with a hanging man candle that is still in range. The weekly candles, wow very narrow week for us. The NDX, COMPX and SPX all closed with a doji on the week, the NDX and COMPX were both inside weeks. The SPX barely tipped the prior weeks low to come right back in range. The Dow dropped the prior weeks low, but also popped back in range to close with a hanging man. All of these are signaling a tired market that isn’t coming off without a fight. Unable to break to new highs and unable to pullback, leaves us with a tug of war. The weekly indicators still have the upper Bollinger overhead, CCI moving back to 100 line support, RSI at 70 and stochastics at 87 for the Dow. SPX, NDX and COMPX all have the stochastics at 80-82, CCI is under 100 line, RSI at 64-66 and the MACD is flat.
Option expiration week will start with this heavy look, but we had this look ALL week and still have not moved out of range. Until the market breaks last week range, there is not a lot to sink our teeth in. Expecting narrow ranges everyday isn’t something I care to get use too, but we are heading into quadruple witching week so it is not likely we hold this range all week. Generally the volatility increases and the market moves. The week also had a Fed meeting and plenty of economic data early on to help move the market. The week is also the last week with no holiday in it until after New Years. Which will help with volume and people starting to plan time away ahead of year end.
Some talk of a Santa Claus Rally or Santa Claus Effect, that is basically a rally on the week between Christmas and New Years. It is explained by some as tax planning, light volume to easy to move things around, year end happy for the holidays feeling, and a jump start into the January Effect that comes after New Years. Which I might add fails more often than not so don’t get into that yet. Let’s get through December first and we’ll see how happy this market feels and IF Santa even arrives. We’ve been on the rally horse, so can it continue is the BIG question as we start the second half of the month.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out, quadruple expiration day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market nothing and after the bell SNS, PAY. Tuesday pre market BBY, FDS and after the bell ADBE, TTWO. Wednesday pre market JOYG and after the bell APOG, HOV, OHB, PAYX. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, GIS, PIR, RAD, SCHL and after the bell COMS, ACN, DRI, NKE, ORCL, PALM, RIMM, SCS. Friday pre market KMX, CCL and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -7.31 at 1792.06. Support: 1787.50, 1770.24, 1757.91-1750.91 50dma, 1687.36, 1652.44 Resistance: 1815.60 2009 highs, 1824.56, 1860.18, 1887.98 70.7% on weekly, 1982.68 78.6% on weekly.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +4.06 at 1106.41. Support: 1094.53, 1082.88 50dma, 1062.31, 1047.83 Resistance: 1119.13 2009 highs-1121.44 50% on weekly, 1127.19-1131.86, 1158.76, 1228.74 61.8% on weekly.
