Friday followed Thursday’s weakness and sold off early in the day, by late afternoon the market was reversing and managed to close modestly green. The cash indexes (NDX, SPX, RUT) while all modestly green did not see futures get over the line by the 4:15 bell. The ES and TF closed slightly red, but overall the reversal was powerful. The markets volume was up on the day leaving an accumulation day for the NYSE and Nasdaq. The VIX closed at 26.11 and the TRIN .61 bullish on the day. Gold closed down $9.50 to $1053.20 an ounce and oil down $1.95 to $71.19 a barrel.
The day closed just over support with a nice support hammer. The weekly charts also left a hammer on the week, to confirm these reversal candles the market has to close higher. Which would likely bring in nice multiday lift. The pullback off the mid January highs has been 10% on the SPX, NDX, and the Nas Composite, the Dow is off 8%. That is a healthy corrective orderly pullback for the markets. That coupled with the hammers and over 38.2% supports will likely provide us with an upside move. If this candle and support fails to hold the market a significantly deeper drop is coming out way. My bias moving into Monday will be for a lift, look for a slow start Monday. With no economic data and starting a new week after last weeks big drop the move maybe slow.
Support levels on the Nas Composite 2097.37, Nas 100 1705.49, SPX 1043.06, and the Dow 9714.22 should be watched to hold this week. A move back over 2186.54 for the Nas Composite, 1783.41 Nas 100, 1084.97 SPX and Dow 10176.90 will help build the upside momentum and bring in a multiday lift for the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, Bernanke testifies before House Financial panel, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market NDAQ, OMC and after the bell ATML, ERTS, ESLR, VECO, VMC. Tuesday pre market AGU, BIIB, BJS, KO, CVH, NYX, TIN, and after the bell BIDU, ULTI, DIS, XL. Wednesday pre market CSC, DF, ICE, MMC, PFCB, S, and after the bell BSX, PACR, PRU. Thursday pre market ECL, EXPE, FLIR, PTEN, PEP, and after the bell NILE, CEPH, CAKE, CMG, LVS, MFE, NVDA, PNRA, VARI. Friday pre market IR, PAS, UPL and nothing after the bell.
INDU (Dow) closed +10.05 at 10012.23. Support: 9981.03, 9899.58, 9842.88, 9767.89. Resistance: 10075, 10131.60, 10176.90 38.2%, 10212.20, 10282.50, 10388.10, 10416.19
