Friday closed the day on the weeks highs with an inside bar on the week. The week did close higher and took back most of the prior weeks losses. Volume closed lighter on Friday leaving the week with two accumulation days and two light volume lifting days. The TRIN closed bullish at .75 and the VIX at 24.98 just over 24.44 200dma. Gold closed up $13.90 to $1210 and oil closed up 65 cents to $76.09 a barrel.
Weekly charts has the RSI turned up, CCI sitting back over -100 line but still negative, Stochastics flattening out and the MACD also flattening both are still pointed down. The lower Bollinger pierced and held for support on the week. On the daily charts on the broader markets CCI just closed over the 0 line, RSI is headed up, stochastics pointed up nicely and the MACD is crossed up. The Dow has 10242.20, SPX 1090.71, NDX 1837.32, and the COMPX 2242.26 for 38.2% resistance overhead. The advance off the July 1st lows is a nice move, but 38.2% resistance overhead is still going to challenge the bulls. With the volume dropping off Thursday and Friday we’ll need to see that return to break the resistance with conviction. Otherwise this is nothing other than a bounce for the market off the July 1st lows.
Futures did test the weekly pivot last week and the daily for the ES traded 2 of the 4 days, the NQ and TF were 3 of the 4. The ES 1081 resistance is key to move higher and through that level onto 1101.5. The NQ has 1836 gap 6/28 and onto 1846.75 to watch for on any strength next week. Key support is 1062 for the ES and 1790 on the NQ. That leaves futures with a lot of room on both sides to move. Friday’s range was narrow and the action was really to hold the weeks gains. Most of the day was in a tiny range that finally broke late day to broaden the range.
Monday could start slow unless news picks up. Economic data picks up after Monday’s dead day and we kick off earnings season with AA on Monday afternoon. The market will start focusing on earnings to look for guidance into the next quarter. Which will give us some nice volatility. We’ll also keep an eye on the 200dma for the VIX to offer support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Industrial Production m/m, 10:00 Fed Chairman Nomination vote, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchase, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market APP, SHAW and after the close AA, NVLS. Tuesday pre market FAST, INFY and after the bell ADTN, INTC, YUM. Wednesday pre market ASML, TXI and after the bell LSTR, MAR. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, JPM, MTG, NVS, PPG and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, PLCM, NCTY. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, and nothing after the bell.
INDU (Dow) closed +59.04 at 10198.03. Support: 10137.20, 10097.30, 10068.90, 9977.36, 9928.26. Resistance: 10226, 10242.20 38.2%, 10311.80, 10365.23 200dma, 10436.20
