Friday the Nasdaq snapped the winning streak and left the index slightly red. While the S&P 500 and Dow closed green, all the broader markets were green on the week with one of the best runs in years over the past two weeks. Volume for equities fell off a cliff Friday, it was the lightest day of the week for the NYSE and Nasdaq, futures were the heaviest day on the week. The TRIN closed at .89 bullish in addition to the bullish tone was the A/D and U/D lines closing on the days highs. The VIX dropped to 23.09 lowest close of the week and year. Gold fell $1.60 to $953.20 and oil up 77 cents to $67.93 a barrel.
Nasdaq Composite has 2063.52 50% resistance off the October highs to the March lows. The Nasdaq 100 1639.82 50% is the next big level of resistance. There is still room on the weekly indicators with the RSI at about 65, CCI 171-185 and stochastics at 77-80 on the NDX and COMPX. The SPX and Dow are slightly lower on the RSI at 59, CCI at 180 and Stochastics 64. SPX has 1014.14 38.2% resistance and 9422.10 38.2% on the Dow. The SPX and Dow are also still in the inverted head and shoulders on the weekly chart, both sit at the neckline and just under 38.2% on this bullish pattern.
As we sit up here after this lofty lift, the intraday pulled off the overbought look, which leaves the Nasdaq to look for last weeks highs as a ledge to clear. Of course, the SPX and Dow closed on the weeks highs so that won’t be an issue to open on those levels for a retest or a quick pop up there if we see a gap on Monday. I still think we are due to pull off, but picking that top is just not going to be easy. Weekly charts show room to move still, daily are starting to try to pull off and extended into the upper BB, Stochastics at 95+ and CCI just over 100 line.
Earnings and economic data will be of equal focus this week. There is plenty of both and after last weeks quiet week on the economic front the GDP on Friday will be the biggie with some other steps along the way into that this week. The momentum has been one sided and until we see that changing, there is no top picking. What we’d like to see is intraday retracements return and then we’ll know it isn’t a one way off to the races kind of market. The upcoming week also closes out July, which remember the first half was red and now we’ve recovered that and seeing new 2009 highs.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 New Home Sales, 6pm Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, Tuesday 9:00 S&PCS Composite-20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 12:35 FOMC Member Yellen Speaks, 6pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Order, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market GLW, DEP, HON, SOHU, VZ and after the bell AMGN, MTH, VECO. Tuesday pre market BP, COH, ENR. TEVA, X, UA, VLO, and after the bell CTX, DWA, ERTS, NSC, PNRA, STM, THQI, ULTI, WCG, XL. Wednesday pre market AET, AMT, COP, GD, MSO, Q, SAP, S, WLP, and after the bell AEM, XRAY, DRIV, ESRX, GG, RYL, V, VAR. Thursday pre market ABC, ABX, CI, CL, CMI, XOM, IP, K, MA, MYL, MOT, NYX, ZEUS, PTEN, TRV, and after the bell DRYS, DTE, ERES, ESLR, FSLR, GPRO, MET, PDLI, VSEA, DIS. Friday pre market AEP, D, TOT, WY and nothing after the bell.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +2.97 at 979.26. Support: 966.35, 958.29, 952.54, 937.59 38.2%. Resistance: 979.87-989.97, 1009.94-1014.14 big 38.2% level
