Friday left a nice move to the upside for the bulls, but on lackluster volume once again. This volume has been decreasing throughout the week. Going into quadruple witching we should see volume increasing so keep that on watch for next week. The TRIN closed at 1.07 which is bearish, giving me some concern about the days lift on light volume. The VIX closed at 28.79 which is almost 12% off the 10dma. Gold closed up $7.80 to $1230 and oil down $1.70 to $73.78 a barrel.
The weekly chart left support hammers right in the same range the market has parked for three weeks. Holding over the May lows is key and with Thursday and Friday’s advance the market was able to hold and leave another support candle. Indicators on the weekly indexes look to be flattening out, they have been pointed down so a flattening out is needed to turn up when we sit in range. Not seeing that sharp “V” turn when you the market is range bound is normal and expected. That requires patience to break and move up for that cross up on the stochastics, MACD, CCI and RSI.
Looking at the daily charts the CCI moved into positive territory on Friday, RSI is moving up, stochastics are pointed up and the MACD turned up. The Nas 100 and Nas Composite closed just over the 200dma on Friday. Monday will have to see continuation with another advance and increasing volume to confirm this move. Not selling off Friday was the first step, the second is seeing continuation. The first spot of resistance is the June 3rd gap left open on the broader markets and then onto 38.2% fib resistance. Dow gap 10255.28, 200dma 10313.29, 10330.70 38.2% and support to hold over is 9757.55. SPX gap 1105.67, 1107.95 200dma, 1109.17 38.2% resistance levels and support 1042.17. NDX 1872.30 38.2% and 1895.66 fills gap for resistance and the support to hold over is 1824.48 200dma and 1770.46. COMPX 2291.32 38.2% and gap fills 2303.03 for resistance and support will be 2139.46.
Monday could be a light day on the market, with no economic data and plenty of reason to digest the advance on Friday could leave us a little on the quiet side. I don’t expect any big surprises at this point, but we’ve woke to some very unusual Monday’s lately. So expect anything is now the way we start out week. Barring any world wide “issues” we’ll look for a quiet start on Monday. A minor pullback and continuation to the upside is my bias from here. My son informed me that the USA keeping England to 1-1 is a very lucky event for the world, so we’ll go with that and look for a move out of the three week range this week. (By the way my son is 11 and sees the world through a soccer ball, so take the view Monday it is round and bounces).
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, TBA NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market CHDX and after the bell LZB, MDZ, RENT. Tuesday pre market BBY, FDS and after the bell CLC. Wednesday pre market APP, FDX, SMTS and after the bell IHS. Thursday pre market ATU, DFS, KR, PIR, SFD, WGO and after the bell INXI, SMOD. Friday nothing due out.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +4.76 at 1091.60. Support: 1073.12, 1061.30, 1052.89, 1040.78 5/25 lows, 1023.13, 1006.99. Resistance: 1107.95 200dma-1109.17 38.2%, 1130.29, 1145.15
