Friday left the market with a modest gain and the week with a very modest win. Truly narrow boring range week that offered very little in the way of volatility for traders. Volume was the lightest of the week on Friday’s, but that is likely to be the tone with each week through the summer. The VIX closed at 28.15 and the TRIN at .88 for a bullish tone. Gold had a $21.50 melt down to close at $940.50 and oil came off 63 cents to $72.05.
Nasdaq composite, Nas 100, S&P 500 and the Dow on a daily chart has Stochastics turned down, CCI slowly falling off, RSI pointed down and the MACD is flat still. The moving averages are in bullish order still but we are sitting on the 10dma with the 20ema coming up slowly. The move off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 lows, the Nas Composite has 1875.19 at 38.2% just 20 points overhead and the Nas 100 1496.36 38.2% just 7 points overhead. Both did test the level and come off, indicators are still open to the upside but that upper Bollinger is nearing. S&P 500 has 1014.14 overhead by 68 points and the Dow at 9422 still 600 points off. Leaving tech as leading this move off the March lows to retrace into key resistance first. SOX weekly has left two weeks of toppy candles and isn’t into levels we are seeing on the hardware rise. Leaving semi’s in the dust really and the HWI just 5 points off 78.6% resistance (237.78). Banks and brokers are still well below levels tech is reaching, but they did finish on the highs this past week and seeing some interest in them.
Into Monday we will kick off expiration week, which generally brings in higher volatility and volume. We could use both and very likely to leave this very tight range we’ve spent 10 days in. The week also has a lot of economic data and that will be watched as a catalyst to move us. Little downside bias is creeping in here for me the longer we sit in this range, so watch for any pressure and as market breadth picks it’s direction we’ll get on board. Once the range which can be easily seen now after 10 days breaks we won’t have any trouble finding movement. Until then it is light and waiting stuff for us.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 Tic Long Term Purchases, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 8:30 PPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 10:30 Current Account, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas, Friday nothing due out but its Quadruple witching expiration day
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing pre mkt and after the bell LZB. Tuesday pre market BBY, SFD and after the bell ADBE, NCTY. Wednesday pre market ATU, FDX and after the bell HIS. Thursday pre market CCL, SJM, PRGS, WGO, and after the bell RIMM, SGK, SWHC. Friday pre market KMX and after the bell nothing do out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Monday’s pivot 1481, weekly pivot 1489, monthly 1405.50. Support: 1481, 1476.25, 1472.50, 1466.25, 1463, 1458.75-1456, 1447.50. Resistance: 1489.75, 1495, 1502, 1506.50, 1511.25, 1514.75, 1518, 1530.25
