Friday closed the day out with the SPX and COMPX modestly green and the Dow along with the NDX slightly red. Pretty much a no change day when it was all said and done at the bell. The mid range day close left the day very neutral. However, breadth was mixed with the TRIN at 1.24 bearish and the A/D and U/D just off the highs. Volume came in slightly higher on the NYSE and Nasdaq, futures also picked up steam. Gold closed up $8.70 to $1254.60 and oil up $2.34 to $78.83 a barrel.
The broader markets held 61.8% Fibonacci support off the May 25th low to the June 21st high. The week took back the prior weeks gain and dropped us right back on the top of the three week range the market parked in. The week started at one end and ended at the other end, exact opposite of the prior week. June comes to an end on Wednesday, right now the market sits pretty much on May’s close and mid June range. The market is still within May’s range, only the Dow dipped under May’s low while the other indexes held just over. Leaving June in the lower half of May’s very big range and doing nothing but churning for June.
Into next week the market will have a lot of economic data to digest, month end and lead into a three day weekend. The markets are closed on Monday, July 5th, which is likely to lead Friday pretty lackluster. Monthly charts, indicators are all tipped down. The weekly all but stochastics are tipped down on the broader indexes. Daily is still bearish which leaves us to break last weeks low to see any continuation. Also May’s low isn’t far below and that would let the market continue lower. April left shooting stars on the monthly charts, May fell and closed significantly lower to confirm those reversal candles. Now June is working on an inside digestive month unless we take out those lows in the next three days. Holding could spoil the selling party and let the market sit until earnings start to unfold.
Monday we will look for some early upside to work off last weeks dismal performance to the downside. Each bounce this week was sold, until we see that trend changing don’t get the bullish thoughts into your mind. Also we only saw one day last week with any short covering, until we see that change the bears remain to sit on the market. That last 15-20 minutes has to see covering or the bears are not showing any concern about following through to the downside. With May’s low just under us that is reason to look for a break and for lower ground.
Nas Composite May low 2140.53 and then into 2050.23 will be key. Nas 100 May’s low 1752.31 and then into 1567.82 will be key. S&P 500 1040.78 May’s low and 1006.99 for support. Dow 9774.48 for May’s low and then 9396.61 support. Those are big levels and not anything near term but likely if we drop May’s low.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 12:45 FOMC Member Warsh Speaks. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, All Day Total Vehicle Sales. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market nothing due out and after the close BKS, MU, SMSC. Tuesday pre market nothing due out and after the bell GIS, WOR. Wednesday pre market APP, AM, MON, and after the bell APOL, SCHN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ and FLOW. Friday nothing due out.
