Friday closed the day in the red on slightly higher volume. The day sold off and became heavier throughout the day with very shallow bounces until the bell finally saved the day. The TRIN closed at 2.34 very bearish and the A/D along with U/D lines closed near the lows. The VIX closed at 35.48 just over the 10dma. Gold closed up $7.20 to $1217.20 and oil down $3.10 to $71.51 a barrel.
The Nasdaq Composite is under the 200dma, Nas 100 closed just over it leaving us stuck in the tug of war still. The SPX and Dow fought with the 200dma all week and still remain under that key moving average. The indexes sit just over the May 25th lows, that is the key support. Below that support moves us back to the February 5th lows. The market still has fear and the unknown keeps rocking the boat with some of the EU countries. The RSI and CCI turned down on each index, the stochastics are tipping down and the MACD is also trying to turn down. Follow through to the downside would allow the stochastics and MACD to turn down and open up. The market has set in this range for two weeks marking time.
Into next week we have a lot of economic data and a very wound up market. After two weeks in range it is time to see some movement. Until the market breaks there is no clear direction, but after Friday’s close an early bounce onto Monday should be watched for. The ES back over 1077, NQ 1853 and TF 646.20 would open the door to the bulls camp. A break of the May 25th lows will likely head significantly lower. The NQ still has a gap open at 1791.50 because it lagged the ES and TF in this drop, they filled those gaps already. The semiconductors hold just over the 200dma which has helped the NQ to hold up better than the banks or brokers. We will watch for any change in tech and a drop to 340.38 200dam on the SOX. Banks are into the 200dma 47.82, brokers have been under for weeks. A weak start Monday and an early bounce is where we look.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 3:00 Consumer Credit. Tuesday 8:25 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 7pm FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Wednesday 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book, 4:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market GIII and after the bell CHP, FCEL, PBY, THO. Tuesday pre market DG, TLB and after the bell PLL, TUTR, TTWO. Wednesday pre market CIEN, TITN, MTN and after the bell MW, SHFL. Thursday pre market APWR, DLM, LULU, SCHS and after the bell FNSR, INXI, NSM. Friday nothing due out.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -83.86 at 2219.17. Support: 2193.28, 2176.26, 2140.53, 2100.17. Resistance: 2248.65, 2287.10-2291.32, 2322.07-2337.91 50%, 2384.49-2388.12 50dma.
