Friday closed the day split with the Nas 100 (NDX), S&P 500 (SPX), Dow all modestly green and the Nas Composite slightly red. The week posted a nice gain and left shooting star candles on the week. Volume came in lighter on futures, the NYSE and Nasdaq Friday leaving this as a hit and miss week for volume. The VIX closed at 17.77 and the TRIN at .69 bullish on the day. Gold fell $8.00 to $1100.90 and oil down 51 cents to $80.02 a barrel.
The weekly charts have the upper Bollinger piercing on each broader index and RSI at 66-69 on each broader market. The Nasdaq 100 has retraced further than the other indexes off the October 2007 highs to the March 2009 sitting just under 1982.68 78.6% resistance. That coupled with the reversal candle left on Thursday and tried to step off that on Friday still leaves me looking for a some pullback in this market. The move off the banks swing high/multi-year high also gives us reason to look for some retracement. Any pressure off banks will put some on the SPX.
A lower close on Monday will confirm the reversal in progress from Thursday. It is a shortened week and a nervous market coming off the highs put in last week. An early pullback this week to close out March and position for April will take some pressure off the market before we kick off earnings. A big concern this week will be the job’s report on Friday with the markets closed. There will be a globex trading session so futures will be open, which will take some nervousness out. But with no equities and a very short session there will be plenty of volatility to watch for.
We were watching for 1156.60 to test on the ES and that was the low of the day. Now we have to look for retest into 1169 and any rejection there is likely to lead us down to 1151.75. The NQ 1940.50 support came in and now a bounce up to 1961 is likely. Any rejection there lets us look for that deeper pullback into 1931.25 support.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks. Tuesday 9:00 S&P CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Vehicle Sales all day. Friday US markets are closed for Good Friday but there is data which is VERY unusual so this maybe rescheduled 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market APOL, and after the bell NCTY. Tuesday pre market CIE, LDK and after the bell EXFO, ZZ, TISI. Wednesday pre market DG, OSTK, RAD, and after the bell BLUD, MOS, RIMM, XRTX. Thursday pre market AZZ, KMX, SCHN, SCHL and after the bell MU, PBY. Friday nothing due out US markets are closed.
BKX (Banks) closed -.13 at 52.30. Support: 51.76, 51.19, 50.50, 49.84 Resistance: 52.68, 53.14-53.46, 54.13
