Friday left the day with modest gains and in the four day range we’ve sat in. Only Monday advanced the market leaving Tuesday – Friday to sit in range. The market did close green on the week and holding just off the 2009 highs upon Friday’s close. Volatility dropped throughout the week with the flat VIX, closing Friday at 23.36 which was only .82 cents lower than last Friday. The TRIN closed at 1.09 bearish on the day. Gold closed up $10.20 to $1116.80 and oil down 65 cents to $76.29 a barrel.
Weekly charts the Nas Composite still sits under the upper Bollinger, the 10ma, 20ema, 50ma are all in bullish order leaving only the 200ma still overhead out of order. The CCI is just over 100 line, RSI at 64 and stochastics turning up. Nas 100 just crossed the 200ma and the 10ma crossed through it leaving the 20ema and 50ma left for the 200ma to come through for a full bullish order. RSI is at 67, CCI 137, MACD flat and slightly pointed up and the stochastics trying to turn up. The SPX and Dow look the same as the Nas 100 (NDX) other than the 200ma is still way overhead. The NDX, SPX and Dow had new closing highs for the year, leaving only the Nas Composite under the 52 week highs.
Daily charts the Dow and SPX, closed with some divergence on the RSI and CCI, the stochastics are turned down and the MACD flattened off. The Nas 100 and Composite both have the stochastics crossed down, but RSI, MACD and CCI all closed higher. On the Nasdaq indexes we have possible double tops on the 65 minute charts, the SPX and Dow are possibly leaving us with a lower high, if the market turned down here. 1100 will be key on the SPX heading into next week, much like the 10,000 mark was for the Dow. Until that resistance clears the uphill road is going to be difficult to trust and see continuation come in. Volume has also been light all month, which needs to improve into expiration week. That is generally higher volume like we see during month end.
Futures did not test the weekly pivots last week leaving the upcoming week to look at them as pivotal ledges. The market isn’t likely to see them only once, rotating over and around many times is more likely to happen. The ES is 1086.5, NQ 1769.5 and TF 585.5, the market rarely misses them and when we do the following week becomes more of a key area.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Business Inventories, 12:15 Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 6:15 pm FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:15 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market LOW, and after the bell CHINA, SINA. Tuesday pre market HD, SKS, TGT, and after the bell ADSK, LZB, CRM. Wednesday pre market BJ, SOLF and after the bell HOTT, NTAP, NTES, PETM. Thursday pre market PLCE, CIT, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, and after the bell DELL, GPS, INTU, OHB, ZUMZ. Friday pre market ANN, DHI, SLM, KIRK and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +18.86 at 2167.88. Support: 2145.83, 2120.01, 2083.45, 2057.42, 2013.55 38.2%. Resistance: 2190.64 10/21 highs, 2236.47, 2294.18.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +6.24 at 1093.48. Support: 1076.34, 1058.41, 1045.64, 1012.72 38.2%. Resistance: 1105.37, 1127.19, 1158.76, 1219.07
