Friday delivered a blow to the week and closed the day, week and month red across the broader markets (the Dow did hold green on the month by 45 cents). The volume came in heavy for a distribution day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures left the heaviest day of the December contract so far this quarter. Plenty of push on this drop after the low volume lift on Thursday. The TRIN was as high as 3.83, but closed at 2.58 very bearish. The VIX lifted to levels we haven’t seen since July 8th, closing at 30.69. Gold closed down $6.60 at $1040.50 and oil down $2.79 to $77.08 a barrel.
The Nas Composite, Nas 100 and S&P 500 are right at the October lows, closing lower confirms a break of the higher highs and higher lows trend the market has had since July. The weekly chart turned the CCI down, RSI falling, stochastics crossed down and the MACD is flat on each index. Monthly also turned the each indicator down slightly, but the monthly candle closed very bearish. The next leg down is 2013.55 COMPX, 1633.39 NDX, 1012.72 SPX, and Dow 9343.14 for support to look for into an exhaustive move down. After that big drop on Friday we will be oversold with any further move early on Monday. Thursday was non stop lift with no pullbacks and Friday was exactly the same in the opposite direction. A market that doesn’t retrace intraday is hard on traders, but we remain patient and pick our spots that make sense to make for profitable days.
Into next week we’ll have slower earnings and get into more second tier companies. The star of the week will be the Federal Reserve on Wednesday with some possible insight into what they are planning near term for rates and Fed actions. Monday could give us that end of month hang over and be very digestive. The economic data will be watched carefully this week and comes in heavy every day. That is very likely to set the tone each day and keep the volatility that the market saw last week. Some retracement early on Monday would set us up for a narrow range to be digestive. A move lower early on, would let us find those supports outlined above quickly and look for a bounce there.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and Fed Fund Rate, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 9:45 FOMC Member Evans speaks, 10:00 Wholesale inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit, 3:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market CLX, F, OSG, and after the bell CHK, DLLR. Tuesday ABC, ADM, CAM, BJS, ICE, MRO, MA, JOE, THC, TEVA, and after the bell ONXX, TIE, TRLG. Wednesday pre market AGU, ADP, DVN, GRMN, MMC, MSO, PHM, TOT, XTO and after the bell NDN, CECO, CSCO, ESLR, GG, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, QCOM, THQI, WFMI. Thursday pre market CAH, CI, CDE, CVS, FTO, IMAX, ISIS, KG, MGM, NDAQ, NGS, OMG, SLE, SMG, WEN, WWE and after the bell ATVI, ATML, NILE, CHINA, CROX, HANS, IGT, JDSU, NVDA, SMTC, SBUX, JAVA, SUN. Friday pre market LPNT, SEP, SUP and after the bell AES.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -44.14 at 1667.13. Support: 1633.39, 1587.85, 1542.31. Resistance: 1708.59, 1736.18, 1755.82, 1788.61
SPX (S&P 500) closed -29.92 at 1036.19. Support: 1012.72 38.2%, 985.34, 957.95. Resistance: 1054.05-1059.35, 1075.39, 1086.81, 1101.36
