Friday closed the day green and the week closed on the highs. Which broke the two weak losing streak the broader markets had experienced. It was also the first close over the much talked about 10,000 on a weekly chart since September 28th, 2008 for the Dow. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also had nice gains of over 3% on the week. Volume did come in lighter Friday than Thursday, but that made for decreasing volume throughout the week. The VIX closed at 24.19 on the weeks lows and the TRIN at .99. Gold closed up $6.70 to $1096 and oil down $2.27 to $77.35 a barrel.
Daily and weekly charts are still able to move higher, the only concern we have is the hit and miss volume. Seeing the volume drop off in this first week of the month was really lackluster. The Fed, earnings and Job’s data was not able to spark any real fire in the participation, that is surprising. But it is allowing the market to digest and hold in range, that could fair very well for the bulls with ANY move back to the 2009 highs just overhead. The markets also moved back through the 50dma’s which we spent 4-5 days under, never getting far below, just a break and sit there. I do see a possible ABC pattern that started early July and with this pullback completed a C leg off the October 21st highs. A retest of the highs on the 21st will either break out or we’ll see a lower high/same high to reverse off this pattern. A break would let us see 2 more legs up for a 5 wave instead of an ABC. There is no way to know which it is, until those highs are broken or failure to break out happens.
I have no concerns really on the bulls continuing this move other than the volume. Without volume I look at this very cautiously and unless we see it come in soon. Gold and oil were moving in tandem until this past week and they were split on Thursday and Friday. The market has moved with oil and didn’t hold that trend on Thursday and Friday with oil closing down and the markets and gold up. We will keep an eye on that into next week too. That split could cause some tug of war for us. The 2009 highs 2190.64 for the COMPX, 1780.83 NDX, 1101.36 SPX and 10119.47 for the Dow should be on watch this week too. Data on the Jobs numbers Friday disappointed, the market shrugged it off, we’ll be very neutral into Monday to see if that mentality holds. The lackluster volume worries me on that holding into Monday so stay on your toes!
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday US Bank Holiday (Veterans day), Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market ENER, SEPR, and after the bell ERTS, MBI, PCLN. Tuesday pre market BZH, TYC and after the bell PAAS, WTW. Wednesday pre market APU, M, ZOLL and after the bell AMAT, CSC, NTES, WES. Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +7.12 at 2112.44. Support: 2081.96, 2059.93, 2044.25, 2013.55 38.2%, 1958.84, 1904.14. Resistance: 2127.36, 2155.39, 2190.64 10/21 highs.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +2.67 at 1069.30. Support: 1055.40, 1045.46, 1038.39, 1012.72 38.2%, 985.34, 957.95. Resistance: 1073.86, 1085.96, 1101.36
