Friday broke the markets nine day winning streak by closing red on the day on heavier volume than Thursday. A single distribution day isn’t a problem for the bulls, but several of them would be. Pulling back on light volume would be preferable and keep participation ready to buy, which will leave us on watch for how volume does. Option expiration generally has heavy volume because of the position settling, so we won’t worry about a single day. The TRIN closed at 1.64 bearish and the VIX at 21.43, still 9.5% from the 10dma. Again option expiration impacts not only volume but the VIX, so Monday that should smooth out and lift closer to the 10dma. Gold closed at $1051.50 up 90 cents and crude up 93 cents at $78.50 a barrel.
The Dow and SPX closed at new highs for the year, the NDX and COMPX had new closing highs for the year, but under the September highs. The Dow didn’t hold onto 10,000 into Friday’s close, but that is more of a psychological then technical level for the market to focus on. The week closed up and made small gains while keeping the range still at the upper end, but within the same area as we’ve sat for 5 weeks now. The Nas 100 and Composite are back in the September 2008 range, the Dow along with the SPX are back in the October 2008 range. September and October in 2008 were wide expansive drops on the market, regaining that territory is great, now the market needs to get through this resistance.
Daily chart the stochastics has let both lines join in the low 90’s another down day would cross this down, RSI turned down to 62, CCI dropped into 87 and MACD flattened out. The days candle was engulfing off the highs the market put in on Thursday. Another down day would confirm further retracement on the market. The moving averages on the daily with all this high level consolidation has let the 10dma and 20dema converge. The order is still bullish, seeing any further downside will turn the 10dma under the 20dema leaving the 50dma under the market for support.
Next week is the biggest week of the quarter for earnings, which will make for plenty to focus on. The market has been receptive to some companies and rallied on good news and has sold the good news on others. That is normal and will continue. Intel kicked off the week Tuesday and traded higher, however drifted lower throughout the week and Friday ended the week under Tuesday’s close giving up all those gains. IBM sold off Friday and Google held up, financials were a mixed back much like tech. The week close Friday leaves us to look for another leg down and to work off the congestion the week left.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Sunday night 9 pm Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks, Monday 11:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts,11:00 FOMC Member Warsh Speaks. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lacker speaks, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 1:30 FOMC Member Dudley speaks, 4:00 FOMC Member Evans speaks. Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market BBT, and after the bell AAPL, BSX, TXN, ZION. Tuesday pre market BK, BIIB, BLK, EAT, CAT, COH, KO, DD, LXK, EDU, OXPS, PFE, STT, UAUA, UTX, UNH and after the bell CREE, GILD, ISRG, SNDK, SONC, SYK, YHOO. Wednesday pre market MO, BA, LLY, GENZ, KEY, MCD, MS, NOC, PENN, STJ, USB, WFC and after the bell AFFX, AMGN, EBAY, FFIV, ISIL, NE, NVLS, OSIP, QLGC, VMW. Thursday pre market MMM, T, DOW, EMC, FITB, JBLU, KMB, MRK, NUE, PFCB, POT, R, TRA, TRV, UPS, WYE, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, BIDU, BRCM, BNI, COF, CAKE, CMG, NFLX, PMCS, RMBS. Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Monday’s pivot 1082.75, weekly pivot 1080.25. Intraday support: 1080.50, 1077.50, 1074.50, 1071.75, 1068.50 fills gap, 1063. Resistance: 1087.50, 1089.75 fills gap-1090, 1093.25, 1095, 1098.50-1100, 1110.50