The action Friday left the day very narrow, the smallest range since April 12th on the SPX and for the Nasdaq October 11th. Friday’s inside day left volume on the curb, it was extremely light volume. The weekly charts show stochastics at 99 for the NDX and COMPX, SPX and Dow are at 94. The RSI is only 62-65 on each index, CCI’s are lower and still at 118 area. Each are into the upper Bollinger band on the weekly too. That leaves the market overbought on the weekly and leaves us to look for a pullback.
Friday’s narrow range we can bracket and look for a move outside the range. Just because the market is overbought doesn’t mean we can’t get more overbought, it is not a sell signal until something supports the pullback. The week ahead is full of economic data and more earnings, all of this will help the volatility. The low VIX close at 18.78 is taking the air out of volatility too. The 1.01 TRIN left the market with 4 of the last five days closing the TRIN over 1.00.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 4:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8pm FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 4:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 4:00 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market DSPG, NS, SOHU, TUES, and after the bell AMGN, TXN, VECO, VLTR, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BIIB, COH, CMI, DD, ECL, LXK, MYL, OXPS, PCAR, AMTD, X, VLO, and after the bell AFL, BRCM, FFIV, MEE, NVLS, PNRA, STM, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ADP, COP, DPS, GD, IACI, IP, LM, MSO, PFCB, PG, SAP, S, VPHM, WHR, and after the bell ACE, AFFX, AEM, ALL, GG, NSC, RYL, TER, V, VISN. Thursday pre market MMM, ADLR, BX, BG, CAH, CLS, CELG, CME, CMS, XRAY, DOW, DUK, XOM, IDA, LLL, MOT, PTEN, POT, RTN, HOT, TE, ZMH and after the bell PAR, AKAM, AMCC, BMC, CEPH, CSTR, DLLR, FSLR, GPRO, GNW, KLAC, LVS, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSFT, QSFT, SUN, VAR, VSEA, VRSN. Friday pre market AGP, AON, CVX, CI, CMC, D, LPNT, MRK, NDAQ, WY and nothing after the bell.
