Friday closed the day red across the broader markets on mixed volume. The NYSE was lighter volume while the Nasdaq was heavier than Thursday’s, most of that difference came from MSFT and AMZN. Futures all finished the day on heavier volume, which is a distribution day. The week closed with the Nas Composite, S&P 500 and Dow all slightly lower than the prior week and the Nas 100 slightly higher. The week did put in new highs for the year, but wasn’t able to hold those gains to close up there. The TRIN accelerated into the bell from 1.69 to 2.04 for a very bearish close and the VIX closed at 22.27 on the 10dma. Gold closed down $2.50 to $1056.10 and oil down 60 cents to $80.50 a barrel.
Eight days in range is just eight days too many for me. However, that is the card the market is dealing us and we are just playing checkers up here near the highs getting tighter and consolidating the gains. The market had plenty of opportunity to rally this week on good earnings, but the job just didn’t get done. The bears aren’t stepping in with a heavy hand either though. Daily charts are turned down on the broader markets indicators, only the MACD is left flat with the stochastics, CCI and RSI all headed down. The upper Bollinger band is just overhead and each index sits on the 10dma. The 20dema is nearing with all this congestion we’ll have the moving averages converging to provide support, but also keep in mind that also lets the smaller moving average cross through the longer ones on any down days very easily. For now each index still has the moving averages in bullish order though.
Next week earnings continue to roll out and the big caps that are widely held will start to slow down after this week. Economic data will be heavier than the prior week was and it is the end of October. We’ll start to see some month end settling by Wednesday flow in and pick up the pace on participation. My bias on the opening is for a move lower to test the bottom of the range, last weeks lows. If we don’t hold that level another leg down is very likely to come in. The upside the market has to get through last weeks highs and continue to run. That isn’t an easy task with the lack of momentum we had this week. Every attempt to move was snapped back with sellers and on mixed volume all week. That leaves us with some downside bias until those highs are broken and we see confirmation of those breaks.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out, Tuesday 4:30 am Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Advance GDP Price, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market GLW, SOHU, VZ and after the bell BIDU, CF, CHK, MAS, MTH, WINN, ZRAN. Tuesday pre market AKS, BJS, BP, IACI, LLL, OSIS, PCAR, SCHN, TUES, X, UA, VLO, V, and after the bell ADVS, APOL, BBOX, CEPH, DWA, ETFC, MEE, NSC, PNRA, PDLI, SUNH, TZOO, ULTI. Wednesday pre market ASH, COP, GD, HES, IP, LVLT, MSO, Q, SAP, SEPR, WLP, and after the bell AEM, AKAM, CTX, XRAY, ESRX, FSLR, JDSU, LSI, OII, PACR, RYL, VARI, XL. Thursday pre market AGN, AEP, BCRX, CME, COCO, XOM, K, MGM, MOT, MYL, NEM, ODP, ZEUS, PDE, PG, S, TSM, ZLC and after the bell ADPT, ACS, ATML, DLLR, ERES, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, MSTR, RNWK, SPF, TSRA, USTR, VAR, VSEA, WYNN. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, D, DUK, NYX, SNE, UPL, WY, YRCW and after the bell SHPGY.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -9.52 at 1753.63. Support: 1750.28, 1733.36 38.2%, 1704.04, 1684.74 50dma. Resistance: 1772, 1788.61, 1801.24
SPX (S&P 500) closed -13.31 at 1079.60. Support: 1070.26 38.2%, 1060.66, 1046.29 50dma. Resistance: 1095.37, 1127.19, 1158.76, 1177.55
