Friday closed the week modestly red on lighter volume for the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures continued the repositioning from rollover and increased volume, which will lead into next week starting to see the volatility into Friday’s quadruple expiration. The TRIN closed at 1.25 bearish and the VIX at 24.15 after hitting a low on the year at 22.48. Gold closed up $9.40 to $1006.20 and oil down $2.72 at $69.22 a barrel.
Friday’s losses didn’t hurt the weeks gains, which were 1.7% on the Dow, Nasdaq 3.1% and the S&P 500 up 2.6% on the week. September is starting on firm ground and will get through quadruple witching this week, early. Expiration is early which can have very mixed outcomes. No real trend on expirations other than we are likely to see some of everything from zig-zag, trend, reversal days and probably a digestive day mixed in there.
Weekly charts are still climbing on the indicators, RSI, Stochastics, MACD, CCI all still headed north. Daily charts stochastics are into the 90’s, CCI is between 150-175, MACD is pointed up but not real open and RSI mid 60’s across the broader markets. Moving averages (ma’s) are still in bullish order and the market sits above the shortest moving average I watch (10dma). The broader markets are into the upper Bollinger band, which will be resistance. I took a close look at the semiconductors (SOX) and hardware (HWI), because of the tech participation and strength in the Nasdaq last week. The SOX left a bearish engulfing candle Friday, trying to turn down on the stochastics, RSI turned down, CCI turned down and now we need confirmation. A pullback there is likely to be just enough to pause the market for a pullback early this week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 12:30 FOMC Member Lacker Speaks, 3:50 FOMC Member Yellen Speaks, Tuesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, Wednesday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, Thursday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday nothing due out
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market FMCN, SCMR and after the bell PLL. Tuesday pre market BBY, GIGM, KR and after the bell ADBE. Wednesday pre market ZLC, and after the bell APOG, CKR, ORCL. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, PIR, and after the bell PALM, TSCM. Friday nothing due.
SOX (semiconductor) closed -4.58 at 321.24. Support: 320.56, 319.09, 316.32, 314.52. Resistance: 323.32, 327.31, 328.99, 330.73, 333.53, 334.03
