Friday left the bulls with another win and a week with gains across the broader markets. Friday’s volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq came in higher than Thursday, to leave an accumulation day. Futures however came in under Thursday’s volume and split on the days close. The ES and TF closed red while the NQ closed green, very modest losses and gains though. The inside didn’t do a lot for movement, but did leave the market wound for a move into next week. The TRIN closed at 1.30, bearish and the VIX at 23.92 up 27 cents. Gold closed down $3.20 at $1010.30 and oil down 48 cents to $72.95 a barrel.
The weekly charts on the COMPX, NDX, SPX and Dow all are moving into the upper Bollinger band which is still pointed up. NDX and COMPX have the RSI at 74, stochastics at 93 with the lines together flat, CCI 124ish and last weeks move with a small marubozu candle. SPX and Dow also with the marubozu candle, but some divergence showing up. The Stochastics turning down and the CCI did too, but with price moving higher on the week we’ll have to watch that carefully into the upcoming week. It can continue to diverge or we’ll see it pullback. The Nasdaq doesn’t have the same look so we continue to look at tech for movement off the highs. Hardware is showing some signs of a pullback after Thursday and Friday, but the SOX remains in a high level channel digesting the move up.
Into Monday things maybe quiet, even with Thursday and Friday’s narrow range action. Monday may deliver more of the same because we have a Fed meeting this week and that can slow down movement until it is behind us. We’ll bracket the range from Friday, which was very narrow, then play the break. It could break both sides and still keep us in a tighter range. So don’t get caught with a bias until we get through Wednesday’s Fed announcement. The 65 minute was tired Friday at the close, but that will need to confirm a pullback in Monday’s opening hour to show us that direction.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 10:00 CB Leading Index, Tuesday 10:00 HPI, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index. Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Day 1 G20 meeting. Friday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 9:55 Revised Univ Of Michigan, 9:55 Univ Of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 10:00 New Home Sales, Day 2 G20 meeting.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market LEN, SCHL, WAG, and after the bell SNX. Tuesday pre market KMX, CCL, FDS and after the bell AIR. Wednesday pre market AZO, GIS, and after the bell BBBY, PAYX, RHT. Thursday pre market AM, RAD, SCS, TXI and after the bell COMS, FINL, RIMM. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +6.11 at 2132.86. Support: 2112.42, 2095.02, 2070.84 38.2%-2065.80. Resistance: 2156.43, 2171.80, 2251.84 61.8%.