Friday closed the day down, third consecutive down day, on the broader markets. Volume was lighter on Friday on the NYSE, Nasdaq and on futures. Very narrow day overall on the market and pretty quiet, but still a modest drop. The week closed lower, something we haven’t seen a lot of. The VIX closed at 25.61 and the TRIN at 1.74 bearish on the day. Oil closed up 8 cents to close at $65.97 and gold down $7.00 at $991.90 an ounce.
The market is nearing key support levels on each index, coming into Monday we will watch for Nasdaq Composite 2076.76 38.2%, Nas 100 1681.43 38.2%, S&P 500 1041.32 38.2%, Dow 9585.46 50% support levels. Drop of those levels we look for 1999.37 COMPX, 1617.15 NDX, 899.61 SPX, and 9218.62 for the Dow. On the daily charts for the Dow, NDX, COMPX and SPX the all have stochastics turned down to about 33, CCI at 0 line, MACD tipping but not over the cliff, RSI down to 56. Leaving the day with some support nearing and indicators coming along with the price action, but not even close to oversold at this point.
Weekly charts RSI 67, Stochastics turning, CCI 114 and MACD closing up on each index. Along with the indicators turning down we have a possible reversal candle. The week closed with the shooting stars into the upper Bollinger. The market has come a very long way since the March bottom. So this little turn down this week is long overdue, we did have a few down weeks along the way. ONLY to see the market continue after a little rest. Which leaves us to watch the support levels outlined above and use it as a buying opportunity. Seeing the market pullback now ahead of earnings season would make sense and allow the market to start looking forward. We’ve seen some improvement in economic data, but not everything is improving. Waiting on earnings to help value the quarter ahead is away to look forward and hear what is lagging and what if anything is improving. This is also the holiday quarter, which matters on many levels, primarily how the consumer is doing in order to spend.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday nothing due out. Tuesday pre market 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 CB Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 8:15 ADP NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Final GDP, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 10:30 FOMC Member Lockhart speaks, 12:30 FOMC Member Kohn Speaks. Thursday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, 10:30 Natural Gas, All day vehicle sales. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed -16.69 at 2090.92. Support: 2087.54-2076.76 38.2%, 2048.67. Resistance: 2116.81, 2136.24, 2150.08
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday nothing of interest. Tuesday pre market WAG and after the bell DRI, JBL, NKE. Wednesday pre market PBG and after the bell LWSN, XRTX. Thursday pre market STZ, TSCM and after the bell ACN, MU, SMSC. Friday nothing of interest.
