Wednesday, irkkkkkkk (that is the brakes!), yep bulls slammed on the brakes and threw the bears out. Complete reversal of Tuesday’s losses plus some left Wednesday green across the broader markets on higher volume for an accumulation day. The Fed only suggested that the economy is on stable ground and left the statement simple with no changes. The TRIN closed bullish at .60 and the VIX at 25.45. Gold closed up $5.20 to $952.90 and oil up 61 cents at $70.06 a barrel.
Strong day following Tuesdays fall off came out of a quiet night and pre market session. Generally Fed day is pretty quiet and choppy, but today delivered a big move up ahead of the announcement and a market that closed green, but off the highs. Eleven days in range is really what we’ve seen with some up and some down, but overall very flat on August. Today’s boost did take this week back to green, but we still have two days to see if any shift out of this range comes out way. Early data will help to set the tone into Thursday and onto Friday’s even bigger data releases.
The 65 minute index charts on the Nas 100 and Composite have tested the highs four times now since July 30th. There is half an inverted head and shoulders on the 65 to watch for a right side to form, which is bullish, if it can form. The S&P 500 and Dow are not in the same formation and Friday put in new highs, so no quad top up there, just a set of highs untested. So unless those highs test, we could see a lower high form or a retest that allows the market to break out. Until the channel (range) breaks or we finish forming a pattern, the market is in a tug of war. 65 minute suggest a pullback for Thursday, but with the lack of follow through we’ve seen lately until we see a signal that isn’t to be assumed. A break of the highs would likely ignite another big upside move and let the market clear COMPX 2063.52, NDX 1639.82, SPX 1014.14 and Dow 9422.10.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1001.50, weekly pivot 1001.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1000.50, 994.50, 990.50, 984.50, 981.75 fills gap 7/31, 980, 976-975 fills gap 7/29, 973.25. Resistance: 1006, 1010.50, 1016, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50, 1032
