Wednesday brought a modestly green day across the SPX, COMPX and Dow, leaving the NDX (Nas 100) with a slightly red day. Volume came in under Tuesday for a light volume day on the NYSE and the Nasdaq. The TRIN closed at 1.11 and the VIX at 24.95. The A/D and U/D lines remained neutral throughout the day with the flat TRIN but it was over 1 for the bears. Gold is unchanged on the day at $946 an ounce and oil down 67 cents at $71.38 a barrel.
The day closed with but yet another possible reversal candle, this market cannot get off the highs and come off. Today the door was open for the bears with the Nasdaq being weaker and falling, but once again the brakes came on and we pulled back up. Stochastics on the daily charts are now touching with all the congestion up here, the CCI is on 100 line, RSI is flat at 61-66 and the MACD is very flat on each index. Doesn’t leave us with a lot to work with still until the market moves, we need a new high or low on the week to move things along. That would confirm these reversal candles or make them invalid. One way or the other, lets GOOOO! Moving averages remain in bullish order, upper Bollinger is still just overhead, the long we sit up here and chop the tighter the range. Winding for a move is the tone so far this week, but that is likely to change into Thursday and Friday.
Big data is due out on Thursday morning and even bigger on Friday. That should provide us with plenty of movement as we wind the week down. Futures have still not seen the weekly pivots under us, it is going to require a big drop to get there but would be an orderly retracement off these highs and give the bulls a rest. The data has been good this week, no disappointing surprises, we’ll see if that holds into the GDP on Thursday and into Friday’s data. The data will set the tone, so that we don’t need to second guess. However, the surprise this week has been the markets reaction to good data, it has not sent us into rally mode. That is when we know things are cooling off to digest this move and let August settle in before we get to September and into better levels of participation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market AEO, ENER, TOL and after the bell DELL, DLLR, FCEL, MRVL, OVTI. Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1026.50, weekly pivot 1009.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1022.75, 1021.25, 1018.25, 1015.75-1014.25 38.2%, 1011.75-1009.75, 1007.75, 1005.25-1004.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1031.25, 1034.25, 1038-1038.75, 1041-1042.75, 1049
