Wednesday split the day on direction and on volume. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed modestly green on the day while the Dow closed slightly down. The markets volume was unusual for a mid week on quadruple witching and a Fed day. The NYSE was lighter than Tuesday, the Nasdaq came in heavier and futures were all lower. The TRIN closed at 1.49, nine of the last 13 days have been over 1.00 closes. The VIX closed at 20.54 down .95 and just off the 20.05 2009 lows. Gold closed up $13.20 to $1136.20 and oil up $1.99 at $72.68.
The Fed didn’t do a lot for us on either side of the fence. The market remains in range and left but yet …yes you guessed it, another possible reversal pattern. So far the market is not confirming any of these and just keeps us in range. The market is winding tighter and the longer we are in this range the more dynamic the move to come will be. The market digests 80% of the time and trends 20% of the time. This is a big digestive time and eventually we will move.
Into Thursday the day will start with economic and that continues into 10:00. The Fed didn’t put out anything new, so we didn’t get out catalyst to move. This leaves us to STILL look for a reversal bar to confirm and pull the market in for a retracement OR a break out to new 2009 highs. It has been the same story all week for us. This week is generally a big week for the market, the last full week of December, quadruple witching and we had the last Fed meeting of the year. So far the volatility is still missing, so Thursday and Friday need to bring it! Futures still have not tested the weekly pivots, usually we see that early in the week, but the first three days have failed to get there. Leaving us to look for lower ground for that test.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out, quadruple expiration day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, GIS, PIR, RAD, SCHL and after the bell COMS, ACN, DRI, NKE, ORCL, PALM, RIMM, SCS. Friday pre market KMX, CCL and nothing after the bell.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1803.50 weekly pivot 1787.25. Support: 1791.50, 1785, 1776.50, 1773.25, 1768.75, 1765.75, 1762.25, 1756.75 Resistance: 1803, 1807, 1809.75, 1814.75, 1817.50, 1823.50, 1829.50, 1834.50