Wednesday closed the day on a positive note for the broader markets, but volume was missing. The narrow range lacked in volatility and volume, leaving us with a lot of chop throughout the day. The TRIN closed at 1.29 bearish on the day and the VIX closed at 21.14. Market breadth never really took shape to guide the market, that is why the range stayed narrow. Gold closed up $12.80 to $1213 an ounce and oil closed down $1.68 to $76.69 a barrel.
The S&P 500 and the Dow moved to new intraday highs for 2009, neither closed at new highs. The market stayed in the range we’ve seen since mid November, still very congested up here and stuck. On the daily charts the CCI is into 100 line resistance, stochastics at 70ish, RSI 57- 61ish and MACD very flat on the COMPX, NDX, SPX and Dow. Leaving a slightly bullish tone, but definitely not full of conviction. The market has a lot to think about as the week works into the Friday’s jobs data. ADP’s data pointed in a positive direction today, now we’ll have to see if the governments numbers confirm that on Friday. Which maybe what the market needs to find conviction and step out of the range for some extension.
Into Thursday the day will start with economic data. Futures are up slightly as I type comments tonight, that is thanks to Bank of America saying they will repay the $45bln TARP dollars. Citi also received word that AbuDhabi will have to purchase 235.6m shares, it will be over 4 installments, nice boost for the financials with these two getting an afterhours boost. If the market can gap over the weeks highs we could see a gap and go with the market looking for a good Job’s report. That data isn’t due until Friday, but buying ahead with a strong open would not be out of the question. Failing to gap over the weeks high we can look for a pullback early and for buyers to step in once the gap fills or partial fill (61.8% of it) would do as well. The market has left plenty of gaps unfilled lately, so don’t get married to that notion every day.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised NonFarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 ISM NonManufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Factory Orders.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market DLM, TOL and after the bell MRVL, NOVL, ULTA. Friday pre market BIG and after the bell FMCN.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed +3.11 at 1790.82. Support: 1781.61, 1766.56, 1755.85, 1739.78 50dma, 1687.07, 1652.44 Resistance: 1798.83, 1814.25 2009 highs, 1824.56, 1860.18, 1887.98 70.7% on weekly, 1982.68 78.6% on weekly.
