Wednesday a modest win for the bulls to get one day closer to closing out the year. Volume was split with the NYSE lower, Nasdaq higher, ES lower, NQ and TF higher, but ALL were modestly lower than average. That should improve in a few days once we get into January. The TRIN closed at 1.40 bearish on the day and the VIX at 19.96. Gold closed down $5.70 to $1092.40 and oil up 43 cents to $79.30 a barrel.
With the TRIN closing bearish for two days and the market seeing these narrow range days just teetering to the red side and back to the green side. The market is struggling to hold its ground up here but with no conviction coming out of the bears or bulls in this light volume the market sits in range. Tuesday the Dow left a doji we were watching for confirmation on a lower close on Wednesday, the market managed to not confirm that reversal candle. On the COMPX, NDX, SPX and Dow the market is sitting with the CCI dropping, although the market closed higher, Stochastics dropped, RSI flattening off and the MACD is still very flat on the daily charts. The upper Bollinger is still just overhead and not opening up, just flattening off overhead. All this still tells us the market is struggling to stay up here.
Thursday closes the year out and a nice gain on the year. January and February closed red, March-September closed higher, October closed red and November-December closed green for 2009. Leaving only three down months for 2009. The October 2007 high to the lows of March 2009 the Nas Composite has retraced 61.8% of the losses, Nas 100 70.7%, S&P 500 and Dow are at 50% of the losses. This week is so narrow where is closes is not likely to be far from the range we’ve seen all week. It may even close red if we slip at all, but that won’t be in focus with the gains the year has had. Next week we should see volume return and get things moving again. There is a lot of data due out next week and we are just a few weeks from earnings season kicking off to bring back some excitement.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday US Markets are closed Monday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending m/m, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, All Day vehicle Sales. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market PNY and after the bell CRI. Friday nothing due out. Monday nothing due out. Tuesday nothing pre market and after the bell MOS, SONC. Wednesday pre market FDO, MON, and after the bell BBBY, RT, SMSC. Thursday pre market STZ, LEN, SCHN, TXI and after the bell APOL, LWSN. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
COMPX (Nasdaq Composite) closed +2.88 at 2288.40. Support: 2250.82, 2213.18 fills gap, 2178.05, 2170.98 50dma. Resistance: 2295.04, 2313.05, 2350.32, 2387.08.
SPX (S&P 500) closed +.22 at 1126.42. Support: 1116.44, 1093.90 50dma-1091.80 38.2%, 1079.88, 1050.99 Resistance: 1131.86, 1158.76, 1228.74 61.8% on weekly.