Wednesday closed the day modestly red across the broader markets. The COMPX, NDX, and the SPX all dropped Tuesday’s low for a brief moment and snapped back in range. The Dow did not dip below Tuesday’s low it left an inside day. Overall the day’s range was narrow on each index, due in part to the uncertainty with Greece. But the biggest reason was likely weather related, which will eventually improve and let folks get back to work. The VIX closed at 25.40 and the TRIN bearish at 1.07. Gold closed down $1.10 at $1076.10 and oil up 75 cents at $74.50 a barrel.
Thursday weather could limit market participation if NYC gets hit with the expected level of snow. I don’t live in the East so I just monitor weather for participation in the market, not because I’m a storm chaser (haha). Chicago is also seeing some nasty storms and that is not helping volume either. Folks know it will blow over and just stay home if they can instead of going in. In many places it isn’t even possible to get to work with some area’s only allowing emergency vehicles on the road. So keep an eye for light choppy stuff if tonight delivers another blow to the East and Midwestern states. Along with participation backing off we are also not getting economic data out of Washington. Today oil was pushed out and is now expected on Friday, Retail sales due Thursday is being said to be pushed out. So we get what we get when we get it, I doubt the time will be a surprise so plan 8:30 am and 10 am for possible releases and we’ll be fine with whatever comes out way this week. MESSY is an understatement but it happens!
Alright into Thursday more chop could come our way and keep us on ice (sorry east coast, couldn’t pass on that pun). The market isn’t likely to move far if we aren’t getting some conviction with volume. The narrow range the week has sat in provides us with a zone to bracket and break for direction. Which is all we can do with it at this point and keep light on your feet with this trading environment. Late day intraday charts were left in an inverted head and shoulders pattern, that along with the Nasdaq ABC pattern I outlined in last nights thoughts still leave the bulls with the opportunity to break new highs on the week to trigger some upside.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): some data is being moved around due to weather in D.C Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Business Inventories. Friday 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations. Crude and Nat Gas inventories were moved to Friday.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ECL, EXPE, FLIR, PTEN, PEP, and after the bell NILE, CEPH, CAKE, CMG, LVS, MFE, NVDA, PNRA, VARI. Friday pre market IR, PAS, UPL and nothing after the bell.
INDU (Dow) closed -20.26 at 10038.38. Support: 9951.35, 9900.22, 9883.17, 9835.34, 9767.89, 9714.22. Resistance: 10075, 10131.60, 10176.90 38.2%, 10212.20, 10282.50