Wednesday fell on heavy volume, again we get the downside with more volume than the up days.  Friday gave us a distribution day, Monday closed, Tuesday a light volume rise and now Wednesday a distribution day.  Not a pattern the bulls want to see setting in.  The TRIN closed at 1.19 bearish but not as bearish as we had mid day at 2.11.  The VIX closed at 18.68 back over the 10dma, the first close over the 10dma in 11 days.  Gold closed down $27.00 to $1113 an ounce and oil down $1.40 to $77.62 a barrel. 

The market closed well off the lows and left the markets (COMPX, NDX, SPX, Dow) on the 20dema.  All the indicators are pointed down leaving the downside door open for the bears.  The market has spent 17 days in range with the last 6 even a tighter range/channel.  The last three we’ve done nothing but alternate down and up days, but on mixed volume.  That is a little red flag for the market and shows participants could be buying on down days and also taking profits. Which we’ve seen with the mixed TRIN we’ve seen over the last few weeks as well.  Just something to pay attention too and take note of when we break this range.

Earnings after the bell were light with EBAY and SBUX as the main focus.  Both traded up after the release and futures are sitting green off that as well in the early globex session.  Thursday has early data and the power house Goldman Sachs (GS) due out.  That will set the markets tone, I expect GS to be good and have even better guidance, but we saw what that did for IBM Wednesday.  Watch the sell the news again, if the market shrugs this weakness off and selling on good news the market may finally step up and move.  Without that our pullback is likely to stick and not rebound late day like today’s action.

Futures keep watching 1124.50 on the ES, NQ 1849 and the TF 628.50 for downside support.  A break there is likely to open the selling to deeper levels.  For the ES to 1110.75, NQ 1820.50 and TF 616.80.  Any upside if the TF clears 640.90, NQ through 1875.50 and ES 1138.75 then we look for a retest of last weeks highs.

Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover):   Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories.  Friday nothing due out.

Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute:  Thursday pre market SCHW, CAL, FITB, GS, KEY, LM, LUV, UNH, XRX, ZOLL and after the bell AMD, AXP, COF, GOOG, IGT, MSCC, SYNA.  Friday pre market GE, KMB, MBFI, MCD, SLB, STI.

NQ  (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday’s  pivot 1864.50, weekly pivot 1871.  Support: 1860.50, 1854.75, 1850.75, 1849 38.2%, 1838.75, 1834.75.  Resistance: 1869.75, 1875.50, 1879.75, 1883.50, 1889.50 fills gap, 1895.75, 1900.50-1901.25, 1907-1907.75, 1913.75, 1926.25

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