Wednesday finished the day split with the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 down on lighter volume and the SPX, Dow up on lighter volume. The day started on good volume but when the SPX and Dow held range, we just couldn’t find new participation. The TRIN closed at .74 and the VIX at 19.16 after hitting 18.77 new 52 week lows. The VIX has not seen this level since August 2008. Gold closed up $18.30 to $1137, making for four consecutive days up. Oil closed higher by $1.41 to $83.18 a barrel, making today the 10th up day on oil.
Monday’s gains continue to hold and the market is playing tug of war over the mud pit since that strong start. Tech pulled back amidst the strong financial move up. Past few weeks tech has outperformed and now financials wake up. Again today the COMPX, SPX, NDX hit new intraday 52 week highs, but close back in range. The NDX broke Tuesday’s low, but closed just over that level. The NDX (Nas 100) was the weakest of the broader markets with the SPX the strongest. That was the financials and tech split we are seeing.
Into Thursday the market has early data and looking a little more nervous as each day keeps trying to advance and can’t find participation. I said yesterday we would bracket the range and again today we are faced with the same thing. This range is narrowing still and not letting us free until a catalyst shows up. Thursday I expect some movement off the data and we are likely to find a range until we see late day positioning ahead of the Friday numbers. Late day has been really quiet this week, Thursday is like to change that and that will be a welcome change. We’ll continue to trade selectively and stay light until this range expands for us and brings in some volatility.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market STZ, LEN, SCHN, TXI and after the bell APOL, LWSN. Friday pre market PSMT and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -10.01 at 1878.42. Support: 1861.05 fills gap 12/31, 1852.30 fills gap 12/23-1847.69, 1829.10 fills gap, 1808.26 fills gap-1806.14, 1787.66 50dma, 1743.72 Resistance: 1901.97, 1928.38, 1948.39, 1982.68
SPX (S&P 500) closed +.62 at 1137.14. Support: 1121.88, 1097.43 50dma-1097.24 38.2%, 1071.33, 1052.88. Resistance: 1139.76, 1158.76, 1228.74 61.8% on weekly.
