Monday started the day mixed and ended the same way. The Nasdaq 100 and Composite traded modestly lower and the S&P 500 along with the Dow traded modestly higher. Pretty much a nothing day by the time it was said and done, just a narrow range day. A few interesting moves on the VIX which closed at 24.28 after being up to 24.86 and as low as 24.02 on the day. The TRIN parked like teenagers on a Friday night at 1.01 throughout most the day. A/D and U/D lines ended the day neutral which is the picture volume left as well. The volume fell off today ending the day slightly lower than Friday’s. Gold closed up 70 cents to $953.80 an ounce and oil up 32 cents to 68.32 on the day.
Into Tuesday once again the market is running into exhausted levels. I feel like I’ve said that for a week now and we still sit up here. RSI over 70-76 now, Stochastics at 93-99 and CCI at 100 line on the NDX, COMPX, SPX and Dow daily charts. 65 minute came off extremes and now each have room still to move until the CCI is at 200, RSI over 75-80 and stochastics are 60’s so still room with the upper BB off us too. Little different because of that weakness the market had until mid day and turned to close on/near the highs. The drop helped to work off the overbought conditions and help the market step back up into last weeks highs.
So now that we know not a lot changed and the Nasdaq lagged the other two broader markets, what do we look for into Tuesday? That is a good question and with such neutral breadth we don’t have a clear picture. We do know the bulls continue to hold their ground and we continue to push higher and eventually the volatility will spark another move out of the range we’ve been in for three days. The tone is changing through, not just a straight up day, the Nasdaq did not lead, tech was substantially weaker than financials. Rotation happens, but somethings can’t change leadership and tech can’t lag for long and not do some damage. Watch that into Tuesday for leadership and if it is lacking we’ll look for a pullback again to step in. The late day runs are starting to wear me thin, but that isn’t enough reason to buy and the race will end one day and leave those folks with no chair in the game of musical chairs. Daily pivots did get a look today, but weekly are still way below us at 964 on the ES and NQ is 1574.25.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&PCS Composite-20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, 12:35 FOMC Member Yellen Speaks, 6pm Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Order, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advanced GDP, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BP, COH, ENR. TEVA, X, UA, VLO, and after the bell CTX, DWA, ERTS, NSC, PNRA, STM, THQI, ULTI, WCG, XL. Wednesday pre market AET, AMT, COP, GD, MSO, Q, SAP, S, WLP, and after the bell AEM, XRAY, DRIV, ESRX, GG, RYL, V, VAR. Thursday pre market ABC, ABX, CI, CL, CMI, XOM, IP, K, MA, MYL, MOT, NYX, ZEUS, PTEN, TRV, and after the bell DRYS, DTE, ERES, ESLR, FSLR, GPRO, MET, PDLI, VSEA, DIS. Friday pre market AEP, D, TOT, WY and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 976.25, weekly pivot 964, monthly pivot 918. Intraday support: 975.75, 971.25, 964.25, 959.50, 954.75, 948, 939.50, 936.50 38.2%. Resistance: 981.50-982.25, 987.50, 991.50, 999.50, 1003, 1007
