Wednesday closed the day lower across the broader markets. Volume did come in lighter on the NYSE, Nasdaq and futures. The VIX closed at 24.25 and the TRIN at 1.30 bearish on the day. The U/D closed on the low of day while the A/D was off the lows, but still quite negative. Gold closed up $2.10 to $1160.10 and oil down 51 cents to $76.99.
Tuesday left the day with a hanging man, the market needed a lower close on Wednesday to confirm that. We did get that lower close to confirm a reversal bar, however one more element of confirmation is volume. Volume came in lighter which leaves us with a weaker reversal signal and not a true confirmation. The SPX dropped the 200dma with this fall and the COMPX is now sitting on top of it. This leaves us to wonder if we had a 2 day wonder over the key 200dma to get the bulls in and now leave them hanging here. Into Thursday volume needs to pick up to convince us of direction. A heavier volume drop would certainly be full of conviction to help see a reversal off Tuesday’s high.
Into Thursday our day will start with economic data to create some volatility. Bad news is not what the bulls want to see right now. Earnings have been good overall and holding their own, but the market still has some nervousness with mixed economic data. Futures did test the daily pivots on Wednesday and now have support below us. The ES has 1092.75, NQ 1854.25 and the TF 644.10, dropping these levels would leave the market looking for significantly lower ground. A bounce back over 661.90 TF, NQ 1885.75 and the ES 1110.75 could let the bulls have a rally party. The volume will be key, heavier moving up or down will show the conviction and give the market the bias for continuation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Advance GDP, 8:30 Advance GDP Index, 8:30 Employment Cost Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market ADP, BG, CELG, CME, CL, SRAY, DPS, XOM, K, MOT, PTEN, POT, PDE, SNE, LUV, TSM, TNC, TYC, WM, WYNN, and after the bell AMGN, AMCC, CSTR, DSCM, FSLR, GPRO, KLAC, MXIM, MFE, MET, QSFT, RNWK, SUN, VSEA. Friday pre market CVX, CVH, FO, ITT, MRK, GAS, UPL, WY and nothing after the bell
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1875.75, weekly pivot 1844.50. Support: 1865.25, 1860.50, 1856.-1854.25, 1846.75 Resistance: 1877.75, 1881.75, 1885.75, 1891.50, 1888.25
