Wednesday closed the day green on very light volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq. However, futures did pick up steam and come in a little heavier than the prior two days, very surprising given the chop and narrow range. The market traded in the smallest range we’ve seen since December 26th, incredibly dull but held up well even with the ADP job’s data coming in hot. The governments data will either confirm that rise or we’ll see something more in-line to expectations, but I would lean toward seeing the rise and maybe a revision of the prior month. The TRIN closed at 1.57 and the VIX at 26.22. Gold closed up $14.10 at $941.50 an ounce and oil down 54 cents to $69.35 a barrel.
The market is still positioned in a tight range and with a slight tilt to the downside. This light volume narrow range stuff can easily be shifted around so don’t get real aggressive until we return from the three day weekend. The jobs data is likely to set the tone for the morning and after the first 60-90 minutes I would expect very minimal movement and anemic volume. Weekly pivots on futures have not tested this week and an early drop into them would provide a floor for the market to sit in, IF the range can even expand that far. After Wednesday’s narrow range show we won’t get to full of excitement if we see another very narrow day.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday US Market closed.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market MEI, MSM and nothing after the bell. Friday US markets are closed.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 921.75, weekly pivot 905.75, monthly pivot 918. Intraday support: 918, 914.50, 911.50 38.2%, 906.25, 901, 897.25, 893.75, 890 fills gap. Resistance: 922.50, 926.50 61.8%, 931.50-932.75, 938 78.6%, 941 fills 6/12 gap.
