Wednesday brought the highest volume in 12 sessions to the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures came in the heaviest of the last five sessions. The Nasdaq and Dow managed to crawl to green late day leaving on the S&P 500 slightly red. Big reversal off the ABC pattern we watched throughout the day brought the market off the lows at 2:30 and erased the losses to bring the market back through yesterdays lows. The TRIN closed at 1.32 bearish and the VIX at 31.29, still 12.5% off the 10dma, so still elevated. Gold closed down $19.90 at $909.20 and oil down $2.84 to $60.09 a barrel.
After the bell Alcoa kicked off Q2 earnings season and gave the market a little lift. AA is trading up 4.7% after the bell and futures are trading up slightly still into the globex session. Into Thursday the market is looking to the Unemployment claims to set the days tone. Futures fell through the daily pivots early on and still leaves the weekly untested. With the SPX sitting on the Head and shoulders neckline that we’ve watched all week the support is still intact. AA may pop the Dow back through that neckline to retest or even negate the drop through it saw Monday. That is the big unknown coming into Thursday. With the close we had I will look for some additional upside into the opening. A look up to 884-889.75 on the ES and then look for any weakness. If the bulls can’t push back to neutral area on the week, back over 880.75 early on, we definitely look for selling to resume and for the necklines to crack and drop the market into full 38.2% retracements by weeks end.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 9:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 Prelim Univ Of Michigan Sentiment.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market COMS, FCSX, and after the bell INFY, LWSN, NCTY. Friday pre market PGR and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 874, weekly pivot 904.75, monthly pivot 918. Intraday support: 872.75 neckline, 868.25, 864.50, 860, 857, 850.25, 841.75 38.2%. Resistance: 877, 884.50, 889.25-889.50, 891.25, 896.25-896.75, 904.25.
