Wednesday brought a nice opening with some buying to continue Tuesday’s advance, however mid lunch the market started to drift lower and accelerated the sell off to close red. The volume was slightly lighter than Tuesday’s. The VIX closed at 33.73 and the TRIN at 1.29 bearish on the day. Gold closed down $15.40 to $1230.20 an ounce and oil up $2.39 to $74.38 a barrel.
Into Thursday we’ll kick off the morning with early data and get onto Futures rollover as the market opens. We can expect volume to be split between the June (M) and September (U) contracts. That can create a little tug of war with volume being split for the first hour. Once through that first 30-60 minutes we can look for things to settle in and be fairly normal. The June volume will decrease and be insignificant to us after that first hour.
The reversal on Wednesday pulled the rug on the bulls. The market remains in range and just over Tuesday’s lows. A break of Tuesday’s lows leaves the market to look for the February lows. The ES did test the weekly pivot Wednesday, the NQ and TF did not. The ES back over 1061.50 and onto 1067.75 should be looked at as bullish. The NQ 1792.75 and onto 1804.50 resistance targets for early strength. The market returned to the sell into strength, we’ll watch for that until we see the weeks high break. That would convince us that the bulls are around for longer than a bounce. Otherwise we look for the lows and onto February lows.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Friday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market APWR, DLM, LULU, SCHS and after the bell FNSR, INXI, NSM. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1061.50, weekly pivot 1077.75. Intraday support: 1052.75, 1049, 1047, 1041.25, 1038.50 5/25 lows, 1031.25, 1025.25, 1021.25-1020.25. Resistance: 1061.50, 1067.75, 1072, 1077.75, 1080.25, 1085.75, 1090.75, 1094.25
