Wednesday delivered one disappointing day. Gap up and continued to lift into the lunch hour when we sat still awaiting the Fed. Throughout the morning speculation on Bernanke’s involvement in the BAC deal and heavy handed encouragement came into focus. Calling the Fed Chairman’s credibility into the spotlight six months before his term is expiring is NUTS! The market does not like uncertainty and the unknown is WAY worse than most anything that can come to be true. This will be ongoing until we hear from Former Sec Treasurer Paulson and Fed Chairman Bernanke along with CEO Ken Lewis on the events that took place. Pres Obama could help to tame the flames here be assuring everyone that he isn’t shopping for another Fed Chair and plans to ask Bernanke to stay on board. BUT so far we haven’t heard from him and the market will want that soon (by weeks end) or the rumors on WHO he is planning to nominate will be swirling around like crazy. Just another bump in the road this economy doesn’t need.
The markets closed higher (excluding the Dow which was small loss) on lighter volume. Volume on a Fed day is usually something to wow the crowds with and today did not deliver. The Fed’s statement did not really change or give a lot of new information on what is to come. Definitely not what we were expecting or what the market wanted. Carving out a green day on light volume with such lackluster participation is very suspect for us. Durable goods came in nice in the pre market but New Homes disappointed the market and we still went higher. I am suspect of that as well. The VIX closed at 29.05 and the TRIN at .95 neutral on the day. Gold closed up $10.20 at $934.50 and oil down 50 cents to $68.69 a barrel.
Into Thursday more data will come out way and likely to set the days tone for us. The rejection of Monday’s high on the Nasdaq leaves me really starting to look for a deeper drop to come in the market. Good news on Thursday that moves us to new highs on the week will erase that from my chart, but until then I’m a little bias to the downside. I don’t like that rejection when the door was wide open to walk through and we slammed on the brakes. I even commented in the room it was like a woman that forgot her purse and had to run back in for it. Was a whiplash move and the bulls REALLY can’t have that and find conviction in participation to drive us higher. Lack of follow through and direction on what to expect into the next quarter leaves a lot of uncertainty for this market. Leaving us with a slightly negative bias.
Little oddity this week in futures is they have not tested the daily pivot all week in the day session. I really can’t remember a time when we closed outside of S3 on Monday and did not test the pivot for 3 days now. We have not seen the weekly pivots either, so we have some strange stuff brewing in the pot this week. Thursday can put all the news aside and do something for us. Early data and Bernanke testifies at 10, that will put the brakes on the action until he gets started. So be prepared to listen and see if the market pauses for him. We’ll need to have faith he is a man of his word and integrity, so it better not be seen as fence sitting by him. The market will think he is out of a job and start to price in unknown things.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market LEN, MKC and after the bell FINL, MU, PALM, SMSC. Friday pre market AZZ, KBH and nothing after the bell.
