Wednesday erased the last two days of losses on the broader markets. Volume came in mixed again today with the NYSE lighter and the Nasdaq higher than Tuesday’s performance. Futures were all lighter than Tuesday’s volume. The TRIN closed very bullish at .29 and the VIX at 30.17 on the lows of the day. Gold fell $4.30 to $1222.60 and oil up 28 cents to $72.86 a barrel.
The day took the build the steam slowly approach to moving up and putting in nice gains across the board with very healthy market breadth. The indexes still sit under 38.2% fib resistance that will be key resistance to watch for. Dow 10341.20, SPX 1109.17, and the COMPX 2291.32 are the levels to watch for. The NDX 1872.30 38.2% did clear by 7 points. Now the index will need to stay over that level. The CCI is into 0 line on the daily charts, RSI is rising, stochastics are all pointed up and the MACD tipped up with the rally today. The market has set in range for four days and now has the job’s data nearing. Our first glimpse will come from ADP and that is likely to give the market reason to move out of the four day range.
With the big VIX move and the incredibly low TRIN close I will look for some retracement into Thursday. Then for the trend to the upside to continue, UNLESS the ADP report gives the market something to worry about. I am not expecting any big surprises from Job’s this week and leading into Friday’s job’s numbers from the government we are likely to see an active final 90 minutes. I don’t think the market wants to get ahead of itself but we did see a nice test and hold of support below us on the 25th. That lets the bulls have the floor if we can move out of the four day range.
ES over 1106.75 last weeks high needs to clear for the ES to get moving into 1121. The NQ came through 1874.25 and now we can look for 1894.75 overhead. A drop through 1079.5 would give the ES a look down into the 1061.25 gap still open. The NQ should hold over 1849.25 or look for 1830.75 to get another test. The TF has 663.30-667.70 resistance and support at 646.60 and onto 636.40 gap fill if that doesn’t hold.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, All day Vehicle Sales. Thursday 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm, Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:15 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 12:15 FOMC Member Rosengren Speaks, 1:15 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Wednesday pre market DAKT, MDCI, ROLL, UNFI and after the bell APSG, CWTR, HOV, JOSB. Thursday pre market JOYG, STP, UTIW and after the bell COO, DCP, MATK, TTWO, ULTA. Friday pre market BTH, MPR and after the bell nothing due out.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Wednesday’s pivot 1845, weekly pivot 1826.50. Support: 1860.75, 1855, 1849.25, 1845, 1841, 1832.25-1831.50. Resistance: 1881.50-1883.25, 1891, 1894.75, 1903-1905, 1907.25, 1915, 1925
