Wednesday brought a modest gain across the broader markets on light volume for the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures which have been like the NYSE and Nasdaq, light November volume were actually in-line with what we experienced on Monday and Tuesday for the ES and NQ, TF was a bit lighter but not bad. That just shows us how light it has been though, participation is down and any excuse to see participation sitting out really is noticeable. However, that should change into the last two days of the week. The TRIN closed at .91 neutral and the VIX at 23.04 up 20cents on the day. Gold moved up to $1114.50 +12.00 and oil closed up 28 cents to $79.33 a barrel.
Today’s action moved the Dow to new highs again on the year, the SPX through the October 21st highs to 1105.37 (about 4 points over prior high), the NDX up to 1793.52 (about 13 points over), leaving only the Nasdaq Composite and Russell 2000 under the 2009 highs on the broader markets that we follow. Only stochastics are showing some fatigue on the daily charts, they are up to 95 and starting to flatten and come together, any downside would turn them down. The RSI is up in the 60’s on each index, but that is not overbought leaving additional room to move higher. The SOX moved just under the 50dma, Banks are nearing that level, Brokers sit on top of the 50dma, Internets, Hardware, Telecomm and Healthcare sit WELL over that key moving average. Today with the lift that makes 8 consecutive days of lifting. In September we saw a similar move up with day after day of lifts, but there were inside down days mixed in there. So 8 is big and unusual, it has been a year of many firsts.
After the bell Hewlett Packard (HPQ) announced earnings early and an acquisition of 3Com (COMS), HPQ traded down slightly and COMS up. HPQ did issue upside guidance for 2010, but the acquisition put pressure on the price. Applied Materials (AMAT) traded up on good earnings and guidance after the bell, futures had virtually no reaction to the news. With no reaction and fairly flat day, Thursday should provide some nice movement. With no real pullback coming in we are still looking for that to happen, but don’t get married to that if we open higher, the market may see another push before any exhaustion comes in. The daily candle did leave a possible reversal doji, but that would need confirmation of a down day to come in Thursday. So we remain somewhat neutral on the market still and looking for that pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 11:00 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, Friday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 9:55 UoM consumer Sentiment, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 11:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market BRKS, KSS, URBN, WMT and after the bell MSCC, JWN, DIS. Friday pre market A, JCP and after the bell SINA.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1782.50, weekly pivot 1705.75. Support: 1772.75, 1766.50, 1760.50, 1756, 1751.75, 1740.75, 1738, 1729.75 fills gap, 1721.25, 1704.50. Resistance: 1784.25, 1788, 1792.50, 1798.50, 1801.50, 1814.50
