Wednesday took back all the weeks gains after making new 2009 highs. Big rejection of that move up and the selling accelerated as some downgrades on banks rolled out late day. The volume also increased on the day for another distribution day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. The VIX hit new lows on the year again today but closed at 22.22, the new low is 20.10. That to me sparked some of that pullback too. As I noted throughout the week we had moved to far off the 10dma and needed that snap back to occur. The TRIN closed at 1.34 bearish again today. Gold closed up $5.50 at $1064.10 and oil up $2.23 at $81.35 on the day.
The day left shooting stars on the broader markets, that can be a reversal candle, but needs confirmation with another down day. The stochastics, CCI, RSI all turned down on the daily charts and the MACD has closed up and could cross down with another day of selling. Thursday the market has one of the biggest days of earnings we’ll have all month. Not only will there be “tons” of reports, there are many big caps that can impact the market. That will create further volatility and early market economic data is due out.
I’ll look for a move up to retrace some of the drop, that was fast and furious. It was a nice afternoon for us, but it was certainly quick once in motion. That of course leads to oversold conditions and points to a bounce for some retracement. The Nasdaq 100 held just over Tuesday’s low, that will be key for further downside to break, the SPX, Nas Composite and the Dow broke already. We need that last foot off the ledge to see the market show us continuation off this selling. We’ve seen this a lot and NO confirmation, so don’t jump in until we see the weakness continue. On the broader markets charts below I marked 38.2% support, that is where we look to test now and for the market to show us if buyers come in at that point or let the market see further retracement. If we move below 38.2% it will likely take us onto 61.8%, far more than a corrective pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Nat Gas Storage, 1:30 FOMC Member Dudley speaks, 4:00 FOMC Member Evans speaks. Friday 8:30 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks, 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 11:30 FOMC Member Kohn speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market MMM, T, DOW, EMC, FITB, JBLU, KMB, MRK, NUE, PFCB, POT, R, TRA, TRV, UPS, WYE, ZMH and after the bell AMZN, AXP, BIDU, BRCM, BNI, COF, CAKE, CMG, NFLX, PMCS, RMBS. Friday pre market HON, IR, MSFT, SLB, WHR, and nothing after the bell.
NDX (Nasdaq 100) closed -2.63 at 1753.56. Support: 1733.36 38.2%, 1704.04, 1679.36 50dma. Resistance: 1769.40, 1788.61, 1801.24
SPX (S&P 500) closed -9.66 at 1081.40. Support: 1070.26 38.2%, 1060.66, 1043.21 50dma. Resistance: 1095.37, 1127.19, 1158.76, 1177.55
