Wednesday gave the market another winning day, but left a very narrow range inside day. Volume was lacking today, but that usually goes with an inside day. Very digestive action for the market and nothing to excite participants to push out of the range, probably awaiting the Alcoa earnings kick off. The A/D and U/D lines were neutral throughout the day. The TRIN closed at 1.24 bearish, the VIX closed at 24.68. Gold pushed up another day to close at $1044.70 +5.00 and oil down $1.22 at $69.66 a barrel.
The market is seeing a lot of stocks on or very near 52 week highs as the broader indexes sits under the September 23rd highs for the year. Very resilient market saw the first of the earnings for Q3 and it started strong. Alcoa traded up in after hours and put the globex session for futures in motion. They are still positive and likely to stay that way until we see the Unemployment data at 8:30. Daily charts the indicators made a small step higher today, the CCI is at 0 line, stochastics are still pointed up and into the 60’s, RSI high 50’s and MACD is still flat but trying to move up. An inside day doesn’t change a lot technically for the market. But it does give a nice range to bracket for a break to find direction. Thursday to find the first move of the day a break of the Wednesday’s will guide us. The market sits right under resistance, The Dow 9731.61 61.8%, Nas Composite 2119.20 61.8%, Nas 100 1717.12 61.8%, SPX at 1057.15 61.8% resistance. 61.8% is now key to the market revisiting the highs from September.
We will look for another move up on the market if the data is good. If the data disappoints the market is still teetering on thin ice, so don’t let a fake break out catch you. Some of the heavy hitting stocks have had BIG days and are overbought. That concerns me about this lift, but slow and steady and some sector rotation could fix that problem easily. Oil has been volatile, gold off the charts and today internets led. Semiconductors lagged, watch that for a move of strength into Thursday to help boost us over the highs and run. Without that we aren’t likely to continue up here without a pullback.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Trade Balance.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market MAR, PEP, PGR, TSCM and after the bell INFY, NUHC. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1051.50, weekly pivot 1033.25. Intraday support: 1049.75, 1047, 1045.25, 1040.75 38.2%, 1037 gap fill – 1036, 1031, 1027.25, 1024, 1021.50. Resistance: 1056.75-1058, 1062.75, 1065.75 swing high, 1075.75 9/23 swing high.
NQ (Nas 100 e-mini) Thursday’s pivot 1704.75, weekly pivot 1681.50. Support: 1700.75, 1695.25, 1691, 1689 38.2%, 1686, 1682, 1675-1674.75 fills gap, 1669.75, 1665.25, 1662. Resistance: 1711.25, 1714.75, 1723.75, 1731.75, 1737.25
