Wednesday closed the day modestly red with the COMPX -.12%, NDX -.16%, Dow -.21% and the SPX -.25% on the day. Tuesday’s gains were just slightly more than today’s losses but these narrow ranges just leave the market in range and with an inside day for digestion. The TRIN closed at 1.25 more bearish than the price action showed and the VIX at 23.25. Gold closed up $2.30 to $1310.60 an ounce and oil also closed up $1.68 to $77.86 a barrel.
The digestive day has left the month still near the highs and that leaves one more day for the bulls to hold onto these gains. The SOX moved just over the 200dma today, first time since August 10th that we’ve seen the semi’s over the 200dma. Now we will need another day over to confirm this break and let the tech sector run on to 357.07. Financials are still lagging back and not seeing the lift we’ve had in hardware, semi’s, telecom and internets. The move through the weeks high will open the door a lot wider for the bulls. As long as we sit in range and just do what we can to hold the gains the more suspect the upside becomes. The early data Thursday is likely to give us the volatility we need to find some movement.
Futures did test the daily pivot and we had a lot of rotation around them throughout the narrow range day. The ES has 1135 support and then 1128.25 to watch for, we do still have an open gap at 1120.50 from 9/23. The NQ support is 2000.75 and down to 1988.50. The NQ spike down on Tuesday did fill the gap at 1981.50 on 9/23, it was not a good test it was a spike off the Apple news early that day. The TF support is 665.10 and onto 657.30, also a gap from 9/23 at 647.20 still to fill.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Final GDP, 8:30 Final GDP Price Index, 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Testifies, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 FOMC Member Dudley Speaks, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Total Vehicle Sales All day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Thursday pre market RAD, SCHL, TXI and after the bell FINL, NKE, SABA, TIBX. Friday pre market KBH and nothing after the bell.
