Monday closed the day green across the broader markets with a very narrow range day. The volume was very light and not a surprise given the days narrow range. The range and volume are bringing earnings season in like a lamb, lets see if the lion is released with the first of many to come out now. The TRIN closed at .69 bullish on the day and just off the days high at .74 and the VIX closed at 15.58 the lowest level since July 2007. The VIX is 14% off the 10dma, that is likely to cause some snap into Tuesday. Gold closed the day at $1162.20 up 30 cents and oil down 58 cents to $84.34 a barrel.
Alcoa (AA) released earnings coming in light on revenue and inline EPS, which is the norm for them. The stock traded down initially but ended the afterhours session almost even. Leaving futures still selling off slowly though and we’ll see if that remains the nights tone when we get up for early data Tuesday. I’ve been suspect of the market running into earnings and now pulling off with a sell the news move. However, this was the first close over 11,000 for the Dow since September 2008. That isn’t going to give up ground easily!
Futures did not test the daily or weekly pivots today. The narrow range on the ES of 5 points was excruciating and not likely to be the case on Tuesday. The ES down to 1186.25-1185.5 should be watched carefully, we drop 1185.5 look for 1176.25 to get a look. Over 1196 onto 1200 and up to 1209 is likely.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:45 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks. Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:30 FOMC Member Pianalto Speaks, 10:00 Fed Bernanke Testifies, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, 12:15 FOMC Member Bullard Speaks, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index, tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Housing Starts, 9:55 Prelim UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UofM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market FAST, INFY and after the bell CSX, INTC, LLTC, TLB. Wednesday pre market ASML, JPM, PGR and after the bell JBHT, YUM. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, BTU, PPG, TITN and after the bell AMD, AMLN, BIIB, CBK, GOOG, ISRG, PLCM. Friday pre market BAC, GE, MAT and after the bell IEX.
