Monday left the market with a modest loss across the broader markets. The volume on equities fell off in the lackluster action, the NYSE was the lightest volume since July 27th and the Nasdaq the lightest since July 10th. However, futures came in heavier than Friday’s and did close the Russell and S&P futures green. The Nasdaq was weaker all day and never lined up with the other indexes. The TRIN climbed throughout the day to close at .87 and the VIX at 25.02. The SPX and the Dow were inside day’s while the Nasdaq traded through Friday’s low. Gold fell $12.40 to $947.10 an ounce and oil down 31 cents to $70.62 a barrel.
Monday left the market wound tightly as expected, this narrow range was a good rest day. Tuesday starts with the first look at economic data this week. We pick up the pace with any luck and start positioning ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s fed announcement. However, Monday’s pace was definitely beyond slow, but the weakness in tech did keep the bulls a step away. Banks once again the strength and kept the SPX strong. On the opposing side the semiconductor’s were very weak holding the Nasdaq down. Weekly pivots on futures did test today and the daily did as well despite the narrow range day neutral toned day.
Into Tuesday the SPX and Dow need to move out of Monday’s range and find some convictions. The banks can’t continue to hold the market up so tech will have to step up or let the market pullback to find some buyers. After we bracket the days range and if the market can work itself out of it we will likely find some direction. I do expect another quiet day though, so it won’t be one to get in a hurry to look for big moves. That won’t come into play until after the Fed announcement Wednesday afternoon. Not a lot is expected out of the Fed, but it is a good excuse to speculate on what will be said and let the market sit quietly.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Tentative Fed Credit and Liquidity Report, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance, 2:15 FOMC Statement & Funds Rate. Thursday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Natural Gas. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim Univ of Mich Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market DNDN and after the bell AMAT, PAAS, CLWR. Wednesday pre market LIZ, M, SLE and after the bell NTES, SINA, TIE. Thursday pre market APWR, DPS, KSS, URBN, WMT, and after the bell A, ADSK, BBI, CHINA, DV, JWN, RRGB, SUMT, TSCM. Friday pre market ANF, JCP and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1004.50, weekly pivot 1001.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1004.25, 1001.75, 998.25, 996.50-995 fills gap, 990.50, 984.50, 981.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1009.25, 1012.25, 1016, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50