Monday started the day weak off Japan’s comments on their economic recovery being slow and our day continued to get heavier. The day opened at one end of the range and closed on the other, it has been awhile that the dip buyers didn’t show up to save the day. Volume came up to outpace Friday’s, leaving a distribution day. The TRIN closed at 1.74 bearish on the day and the VIX at 28.04. Gold closed down $12.70 at $936 and oil down 95 cents to $66.56 a barrel.
Japan may have been the catalyst to knock the wind out of the sails, but it really is long overdue to pullback and let these bulls refuel. The tight control of the range we saw last week expanded and is letting the market rest now. Into Tuesday look for key levels at Nas Composite 1901.80, Nas 100 1542.13, SPX 961.20, and the Dow 8921.81 for support. Monday brought us down and a little more finds us into those key levels, a break there and this market may accelerate to the downside, but one distribution day after ALL this up, isn’t going to do any damage. It will be treated like a buying opportunity off support or some profit taking will come in possibly along with that to keep volume steady and increasing.
It is option expiration week, which of course will see some up and down along with the zigzag in the middle. Volume however should continue to increase and keep the volatility with us. A weak opening is likely to be bought and find the support levels I outlined. However, that doesn’t mean the market will rally, there is earl data and it is likely to have impact on the days tone. So overall we start neutral coming into the day, follow through has been very hard to find in the market.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Housing Starts, Wednesday 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Inventory, Friday 10:00 Existing Home Sales, 10:00 Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market CAH, HD, SKS, TGT, TJX and after the bell ADI, HPQ. Wednesday pre market BJ, DE, and after the bell CAI, HOTT, JDSU, NTAP, SINA, SNPS. Thursday pre market BKS, PLCE, DKS, GME, ROST, SHLD, STP, TTC and after the bell BRCD, GPS, INTU, SKIL. Friday pre market ANN, SJM.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 979.50, weekly pivot 1002.50, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 976-975 fills gap 7/29, 973.25, 965.25, 958.50. Resistance: 979.25, 981.50, 983-985, 989.75, 992.25, 999, 1006.50, 1010.50, 1013.25 fills gap-1014.75, 1016, 1019.50, 1021-1022.50, 1029.50, 1032
