Monday closed the markets slightly red across the SPX, NDX and Nas Composite, only the Dow was modestly green. Over all it was a very digestive day that held range and came in on lighter volume than Friday, however the volume was better than any day last week excluding Fridays big pop in participation. We had no data to get things moving this morning, but the strength evaporated and eventually dropped the market into Friday’s range to finish the day near the lows. The TRIN closed on the highs at .82, which is still in the bulls territory. Vix closed at 25.12 up just 13 cents on the day. Gold closed down $11.00 at $943.70 and oil up 54 cents to $74.43 a barrel.
The day opened into the upper Bollinger on the daily charts for the Nasdaq and came off throughout the day. It is still very tight into that Bollinger to pull in a little more and straighten that up should be on the action items into Tuesday. The Dow along with the SPX closed outside the upper bollingers on the daily charts and left possible reversal bars. We’ve seen this several times and don’t get the confirmation day to follow through. BUT that will be on watch into Tuesday for a lower close to confirm a pullback. 65 minute on each index left a hammer for support at days end, that could produce a bounce early on and then look for a move back into the lows and onto confirming the pullback.
Futures moved to the daily pivots late day and still have the weekly under us. The ES down at 1009.25 and NQ 1612.25, that leg down would correlate with 38.2% on each index. That is a good magnet for the market to pull toward on a pullback. Watch volume on this pullback and the gap from the 20th is still open, below those pivots for another target to clear up ahead of summer ending.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence, 10:00 Richmond Manufacturing Index, Wednesday 8:30 Core Durable Goods Orders, 8:30 Durable Goods Orders, 10:00 New Home Sales, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 12:00 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, Thursday 8:30 Prelim GDP, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 GDP Price Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Friday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:55 Revised UofM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Revised UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BIG, BKC, MDT, SPLS, JAVA, and after the bell HAIN, IRF, MYGN. Wednesday pre market DLTR, KIRK, WSM and after the bell JAS, SINA, TIVO. Thursday pre market AEO, ENER, TOL and after the bell DELL, DLLR, FCEL, MRVL, OVTI. Friday pre market TIF and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1027, weekly pivot 1009.25, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1020.50, 1016.75, 1012.25, 1007.75, 1005.25-1004.50 fills gap. Resistance: 1026.50, 1029.75, 1032, 1035, 1041, 1043.50, 1045
