Monday delivered another day for the bulls leaving 15 of the last 18 days up. Volume outpaced Friday’s on the NYSE and Nasdaq to leave an accumulation day, futures however came in just under Friday’s. Market breadth was very strong throughout the day and closed the TRIN at .65 very bullish. The SPX closed over 1K today, the first time it has traded over 1000 since November 2, 2008, but there hasn’t been a close over 1000 since September 28, 2008. The VIX closed at 25.58, dropping just under Friday’s close by .36 cents. Gold closed up $3.70 to $959.50 and oil up $2.08 to $71.53 a barrel.
The October 2007 highs down to the March 2009 lows we are nearing fib resistance. Nas Composite has 2063.52 50%, Nas 100 has 1639.82 50%, S&P 500 1014.14 38.2% and 9422.10 38.2% is nearing. As the SPX and Dow near 38.2% it will be key spots, the Nasdaq has led the market and through that level and onto 50%, but 38.2% is big. With the SPX and Dow both in inverted head and shoulders on the weekly those levels are also the neckline. Watch the upper Bollinger on the weekly as it nears. Daily across the indexes the RSI is at 75-76, get over 80 we’ll have reason for concern about the overbought conditions. CCI is at 100 lines and MACD flattening to bring the lines together which helps to keep a lid on a run-away train break out. That by no means can point to a reason to short. The U/D and A/D showed buyers are still around today and until that changes we have to be patient for a pullback.
Into Tuesday watch for a test of the pivots, we didn’t even see the daily pivot (ES 997 and NQ 1622) on Monday much less the weekly (ES 980 and NQ 1603.75). Which is likely to leave Tuesday’s daily on futures as a key pivotal area. The markets continue to find ways to lift and Monday left a hanging man candle. We saw one on the 27th and pulled off for 2 days on the SPX and Dow, but the Nasdaq didn’t confirm. So we’ll have to see what Tuesday brings on this one. Thursday and Friday did leave reversal candles and Monday made sure that was still kept on hold with another possible reversal candle forming. We keep seeing groups of candles not doing anything, we need to wait on confirmation.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 9:30 FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks, 10:00 Pending Home Sales. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ADM, CVS, DRH, ICE, THC, UPL, and after the bell CEPH, ERTS, HLS, TSRA, TRLG, WFMI. Wednesday pre market ABK, AGU, BHI, DF, DVN, EE, GRMN, MMC, OSG, PG, SEP, RIG, XTO and after the bell NDN, BBBB, CECO, CRA, CSCO, GDP, INSP, JCOM, ONNN, PRU, SUNH, SUN, TIE, WGL. Thursday pre market AES, EAT, CMCSA, CTB, DSX, EP, FTO, KG, MMS, PCS, NDAQ, OMG, WEN, WMB, and after the bell ACS, AIG, BZH, NILE, CBS, CHINA, CROX, ELX, HANS, MXIM, MCHP, NGS, NVDA, THS, VRSN, WTW. Friday pre market BECN, CEP, SUP and nothing after the bell.
