Monday closed the day higher across the broader markets, very close to the 2009 highs. The volume came in slightly above Fridays for an accumulation day on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Futures came in lighter than Friday’s volume, but that should increase as the week goes. The TRIN closed at 1.22 bearish and remained pretty flat throughout the day. The VIX closed at 21.15 after dropping to 20.57 intraday, the 2009 low is 20.05. Gold moved higher by $3.90 to $1123.80 and oil down 38 cents to $69.49 a barrel.
Friday closed the day with a hanging man, today another hanging man still showing a struggle on the Nas Composite and Nas 100. The SPX also closed outside of Friday’s range and had a stronger candle on the day closing just 5 points under the 2009 1119.13 highs. The Dow is just 15 points off the 2009 highs and closing in on the upper Bollinger band on the daily chart. Overall the days range was very narrow and not full of conviction. The A/D and U/D lines closed on the highs, while the TRIN was 1.22, little high for me to say bullish across the field for market breadth. That TRIN is bothersome and we’ll watch it closely into Tuesday. The 2009 highs can’t afford another rejection as we inch up there we’ll also be watching that closely. (COMPX 2214.39, NDX 1815.60, SPX 1119.13 and the Dow 10516.70 for the 2009 highs) With Tuesday starting the two day Fed meeting it is hard to think the market gets ahead of itself and breaks out, but we’ve seen stranger unexpected things.
The end of day closed strong and that could still carry over into Tuesday. The early data is likely to set the days tone though. Look for a day to find a lot of slow choppy action after the first 90 minutes. UNLESS we see the bulls pick up steam to get ahead of the Fed. Without a break out of the 2009 highs the market is going to have to pullback. We can’t sit in range forever, the Fed meeting could be the catalyst we really need!
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchases, 9:15 Capacity Utilization Rate, 9:15 Industrial Production, 1:00 NAHB Housing Market Index. Wednesday 8:30 Building Permits, 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 8:30 Current Account, 8:30 Housing Starts, 10:30 Crude Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement and rate. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:00 CB Leading Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday nothing due out, quadruple expiration day.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market BBY, FDS and after the bell ADBE, TTWO. Wednesday pre market JOYG and after the bell APOG, HOV, OHB, PAYX. Thursday pre market DFS, FDX, GIS, PIR, RAD, SCHL and after the bell COMS, ACN, DRI, NKE, ORCL, PALM, RIMM, SCS. Friday pre market KMX, CCL and nothing after the bell.
INDU (Dow) closed +29.55 at 10501.05. Support: 10466.20, 10436.20, 10408.10, 10375.10, 10342.20. Resistance: 10516.70 2009 highs, 10567.50, 10593.20, 10735.90
