Monday closed the day slightly higher than Thursday and volume continued to fall off. This holiday week didn’t start off with any participation, which means it is likely to be hit and miss all week. This was the last day of the year for many funds that require three days to settle trades. The TRIN closed at .88 bullish and the VIX at 19.93. Gold closed the day at $1107 up $2.20 and oil up 63 cents to $78.68 a barrel.
News will be very light this week to close December out quietly. However, we do have a few economic reports that can shake us around. The gap did fade off on Monday, after a long pause on the highs, Tuesday is likely to repeat the same action. The market keeps gapping and holding, but we saw Monday change that tone.
The Nas Composite and Nas 100 have the stochastics at 98, CCI diverging, RSI 70, MACD still turned up and the ADX at 16 into the upper Bollinger band. The S&P 500 is into the upper Bollinger, stochastics at 96, CCI divergence, RSI 63 and ADX 14. The Dow has a lower stochastics at 92, RSI 61, ADX 14 so lagging a little on being overbought. We can become more overbought or see what we did on Monday a narrow pullback to work it off and then turn back up to close higher with baby steps all week. Don’t start top picking even though we have divergence and overbought conditions.
Futures did test the daily pivots, but not the weekly. The weekly were not touched last week so we are still looking for a pullback into them this week. ES 1113.75, NQ 1847 and TF 624.50 for the weekly levels to look for as the week continues.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 9:00 S&P/CS Composite 20 HPI, 10:00 Consumer Confidence. Wednesday 9:45 Chicago PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday US Markets are closed
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday nothing due out. Wednesday nothing pre market and after the bell OHB. Thursday pre market PNY and after the bell CRI. Friday nothing due out.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1123, weekly pivot 1113.75. Intraday support: 1119, 1117.25, 1115.75 fills gap-1114.75, 1111.75, 1107.50 fills gap, 1103, 1097.75 fills gap-1096.50 78.6%. Resistance: 1124.75, 1127-1128, 1132.25, 1135, 1138.25, 1147.50
